On first hearing of the H1N1 (swine influenza) virus, there was widespread panic and concern, both here and across the globe. Alcohol gel dispensers were installed in every public building and huge advertising campaigns were brought out to educate the public on how best to limit its spread. The race was immediately on to find a vaccine against the virus that seemed to be attacking indiscriminately – neither age nor geographical boundaries seemed to stop it.
Then the vaccine came out, risk groups were assigned and many were inoculated. Now though, people are left wondering if this was necessary. Not only has swine flu all but disappeared from the public domain, but the number of fatalities has also been significantly lower than experts expected. With the economy in such dire straits, people cannot help but speculate as to whether it was all a swindle on the part of the pharmaceutical companies, looking to profit from the public’s genuine concern. The reality of the situation however is not that simple.
While swine flu no longer makes headlines in western Europe or the US, it is still spreading rapidly in Eastern Europe, Africa and Asia. Also, just because the number of cases presently has declined, there is nothing to say that there couldn’t increase again in the future. In fact, if we are to go on previous pandemics, then it is quite probable that this could happen. Taking the US flu pandemic of 1957-8 as an example, the death rate had lowered considerably by January of 1958. Vaccinations were stopped as health officials thought that the worst of was over. This was not the case however, and there was a rise in the death rate in February which could have been avoided had the correct precautions, including a sustained vaccination programme been taken. While this may not necessarily happen in the case of swine flu, it does indicate that the vaccine may not have been a completely unnecessary procedure.
Even if this doesn’t happen, the swine flu pandemic may still have already caused more deaths than records are showing. According to the World Health Organisation, 13,000 people have died worldwide as a result of the virus. Even Keiji Fukuda, the WHO’s “flu chief”, told the press recently that they “anticipate that these figures will be much larger”. Not everyone who contracted swine flu will have gone to their doctor, and even of those who did, many may have been misdiagnosed. The US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that each year, influenza directly causes 2.7 times as many deaths as are recorded officially.
While the swine flu vaccine may seem unnecessary to many, when you look at past incidences of flu there do seem to be valid precedents for vaccinating the most vulnerable as soon as possible. As Ilaria Capua of the World Organisation for Animal Health’s flu reference lab in Italy says, “When a virus emerges from the animal reservoir you don’t know how it will behave”. In light of this, vaccinations as early as is possible do seem like the safest and most logical route to take.
