Philip Engels
In the Middle East, the beginning of 2011 has marked the start of a new era of political turmoil and economic uncertainty but, also, an era of hope for a better future. From the streets of Sidi Bouzid in Tunisia to those of Cairo in Egypt, Amman in Jordan and Sana’a in Yemen, students, shop-owners, lawyers have indeed expressed their desire for change.
It was not long before their voices were echoed by Ali Larijani’s speech in Iran’s Majles (parliament) in which he characterized the recent events in Cairo as a “free-hearted revolution transcending the boundaries of nationalism” (Asia Times). Just before that, during the Friday prayer, Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami declared ‘the birth of an Islamic Middle East’.
Iran’s involvement in this emerging crisis in the Arab World should not come over as a surprise. Ahmdinejad’s regime has played an active role in the region mainly by supporting radical Islamist movements – and its interventions are finally beginning to pay off. In Lebanon, Iran-backed Hezbollah’s influence over Lebanese politics is culminating as Najib Mikati was successfully appointed as Prime Minister. In Palestine, al Jazeera’s revelation of the secret deals between Mahmoud Abbas and Israel have boosted the popularity of Hamas and will no doubt strengthen its position in the region. Also, the persistent political instability in Baghdad has become the ideal opportunity for the Shiia, pro-Iranian minority to rise to power.
Iran’s influence in the region is not solely restricted to ideological and political support. Lately, it has also established new economic, political but also cultural ties with its previously hostile neighbors. In the East, Tehran has consolidated its relations with Afghanistan – as it recently managed to secure the export of two million liters of oil products (Fars news agency). In the north, relations with Moscow have remained calm. In fact, President Medvedev recently announced that he would not support sanctions against Iran as “the International community, so far, has no proof that Iran is building nuclear weapons” (Times.am) and in the west, Iran is experiencing unprecedented, good relations with Turkey. A recent cultural exchange with Armenia and economic collaboration with Sakashvili’s Georgia also demonstrate that Iran has resumed its active role in the Caucasus region.
Is this the end of Iran’s geopolitical and economic isolation? If so, what will this mean for the relationship between an ever-growing Islamic regime and the reformist opposition? More importantly, how will this then affect the role of the United States in the region?
This map illustrates the geopolitical position of Iran in the Middle East and beyond: its key political, economic and cultural partners (in red) as well as its potential partners that are currently experiencing political instability (in black)
