Philip Engels
In Tunisia, Egypt and now Libya, people are finally freeing themselves from decades of dictatorial rule. In Yemen, young students in the capital Sana’a are also struggling to make their voices heard. Since the 18th of March, large demonstrations have taken place throughout the country but the latter have repeatedly been suppressed by the Yemeni government lead by Ali Abdullah Saleh. The global media: from the BBC to CNN or even France 24, has paid little attention to this emerging crisis. Furthermore, Western and Arab leaders seem reluctant to mention the case of Yemen when addressing the Arab crisis in their speeches (to the exception of Alain Juppe). In this article, I will explore the reasons for this behaviour.
Yemen, also formerly known as ‘Arabia Felix’ by Greek and Roman merchants, is a country that is known for its instability. For centuries, it has remained in a state of political, cultural and economic stagnation. This is primarily due to the persisting divisions among its tribal leaders: from the predominantly Shiite Zaydi tribes in the north to the mostly Sunni Zanariq or even Yafa’i tribes in the south. All have been involved in endless conflicts while struggling to preserve their place in Yemeni politics. It is only by 1990 – when the Soviet-dominated North joined the Western backed South — that all tribes were ‘united’ under the fragile leadership of one leader: Mr. Saleh. The Weakening of the country’s central government can therefore be considered a direct threat to national unity and peace.
Seeing this, Western powers, the Gulf States or even the country’s educated élite, have decided to stay aloof during the recent uprisings. Despite the numerous attempts by Yemeni students to reassure President Obama and European leaders of their ability to ensure a peaceful transition to democracy and to avoid an armed conflict, nobody seems to be convinced.
Moreover, there is a growing fear of an emergence of the ever more present al-Qaeda. Regional as well as Western powers now feel that the fall of the country’s current government will simply open the door to radical Islamists who could take the advantage to rise to power.
Nonetheless, author and previous BBC correspondent Victoria Clark argues that this may not at all be the case. In her recent book, she suggests that Yemen’s ‘tribal culture’ will in fact act against the interference of foreign Jihadist movements. Just as in the case of the Ottomans, the British and the Soviets, Islamists will, according to her, face a similar unfortunate fate. In fact, in an article called “Money talks louder than al-Qaeda in Yemen” she argues that ultimately, tribal leaders are more concerned about their own wealth and power than about the abstract Islamic ideals advocated by al-Qaeda.
Whether or not radical Islam will ultimately emerge, the fear of a non-religious conflict is certainly growing. Recent events in Sana’a have demonstrated that two opposing political factions are slowly forming. On March the 24th, many Yemenis expressed their support for the current president while – also – hundreds of students as well as key tribal leaders such as Sheikh Sinan Abu Lohoum or General Ali Mohsen – “widely seen as the country’s second-most powerful figure” (Al Jazeera)— reaffirmed their backing for the pro-democracy movement. But as Al Jazeera claims that arms are being carried across the border into Yemen, many now fear the start of a new, bloody civil war.
Will Mr. Saleh manage to remain in power? If not, who will emerge? The youth, which currently faces unemployment rates of nearly 50 percent? General Ali Mohsen? As the threat of an armed conflict keeps growing, the risk of a new crisis in an ever more fragile Arab world seems imminent.
This map illustrates the divisions within Yemen: between the Shiia tribes (in green) and the Sunni tribes (in orange) as well as the country’s strategic location: between the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean
