Patrick Cummins-Tripodi
Staff Writer
While Europe and the European Union have been dogged by an economic and existential crisis, the Arab world has exploded onto the international political stage and done some spring-cleaning with its autocratic leaders. 2011 saw revolutions in Libya, Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen that led to the removal of despots that had ruled for decades. Similar movements for change have appeared in other Arab countries such as Bahrain and Syria but unfortunately in the case of the latter the situation has descended into civil war.
But while some of our southern neighbours have seemingly embarked on the road to democracy our eastern neighbours have dug in their heels and done the exact opposite. Fears about a revolutionary contagion early last year put most undemocratic ex-Soviet states on the alert. However the widespread hunger for change that we have seen in the Arab world has not materialised in countries such as Russia and Belarus.
Rumours of a Russian Spring circulated towards the end of 2011 as the biggest protests since the 1990s were held in opposition to alleged electoral fraud during the December legislative elections. A social media savvy opposition emerged that continues to demand the resignation of Vladimir Putin. Sunday’s election proved a decisive win for Putin but amid accusations of major electoral fraud the opposition has vowed to continue the campaign. Putin now looks set to lead the country potentially for another 12 years (in addition to the 12 years he has already completed as president and prime minister). The fact that the opposition movement has failed to garner the wider support of the population, particularly outside cities such as Moscow or St. Petersburg, means that the movement faces an uphill struggle especially considering the fact that independent polls still place support for Putin at around 60%. Even factoring in electoral fraud it is likely that Putin would still have won the election.
Immediately west, Belarus, the so-called ‘last dictatorship of Europe’, has continuously ensured that any opposition to the state of things is severely quashed. With frequent arbitrary arrests, heavy censorship and severe restrictions on civil liberties opposition activists have recently been forced to resort to more inventive ways of protesting such as clapping and coordinating phone alarms to go off simultaneously in public, actions that have still managed to provoke severe reactions from the authorities. The so-called last dictator of Europe, Alexander Lukashenka denies all of the economic woes that have befallen the country, regularly accuses the West of conspiring against him and continues to model Belarus on the Cold War Belarusian Soviet Socialist Republic. The protest movements that emerged before and during the presidential elections in 2006 and 2010 were brutally repressed and the continued arrests of opposition activists and journalists seem to have severely weakened any viable opposition.
Going south, although a markedly different situation from Russia and Belarus, it seems to be a case of one-step forward two steps back with Ukraine. The Orange Revolution of 2004 that emerged as a response to serious electoral fraud in the presidential election appeared to be a victory for Ukrainian democracy but the very man who was accused of rigging the election back then was narrowly elected president back in 2010. Many Western commentators express their unease at the prospects for a fully free and fair democracy under the rule of Viktor Yanukovych particularly as a result of the seemingly politically motivated arrest of the main opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko and other leading opposition figures. Her arrest and treatment have damaged relations between the West and Ukraine, hindered the process of increased cooperation with the E.U and raised the possibility of sending Ukraine straight into Russia’s hands. The fact that both Belarus and Ukraine are extremely dependent on Russia economically complicates the situation even more.
The prospect of another 12 years of Putin, no end in sight for Lukashenka’s regime and a questionable start to Yanukovych’s presidency means that perhaps it really is the beginning of a Slavic winter.
