Tom Nugent
Staff Writer
At long last we are finally within touching distance of the biggest week in the National Hunt racing calendar. The pennies have been gathered, polished and counted and the racing post has been methodically read cover to cover for the last fortnight or so. The high stool pontificators in every public house in the country have declared their festival naps and are adamant that their selection is “the one”. Yes, it’s the magical Cheltenham festival, where men are men and bookies are wary. For some unknown reason the Irish, in particular, have this emotional connection with the festival at Prestbury Park, and for one week only Cheltenham is invaded. This year the invasion looks set to be as big as ever. The stash under the mattress is taken out and we will, as per usual, travel in big numbers and hope to God that our horses beat theirs! Unless of course, like me, you are a lowly student who will have to settle for placing bets in the morning and trying your best to get to a television during the day and shout like a clown if your horse has a chance turning for home. Placing a bet can be a thrilling feeling not knowing what will happen, however, some people want more of a ‘sure thing’ (like us students) and might look at doing matched betting as well. Emma Drew has some great guides on matched betting, discussing if it really does work and if it’s a choice for the betting population to try!
The hype and build-up for the 2012 festival seem to be bigger than usual, with the Irish sporting media becoming fixated with the many talking points of this week’s racing. Even Newstalk are giving their two cents, and making a rare enough venture into racing punditry courtesy of the lovely Hayley O’Connor from Ladbrokes. And, to be fair, the media have every right to be getting excited because there is top class racing on the cards.
The festival kicks off on Tuesday with the William Hill Novice Hurdle run over two miles and half a furlong. As is only right for a race in the Cheltenham festival, the field looks to be quite competitive with favourite, Darlan, currently priced at 9/2 with most bookies, and rightly so having already won novice hurdles at Kempton, Taunton and Cheltenham. His form seems to suggest that he prefers the good to yielding ground, which he will get given that the track at Cheltenham at the moment is as hard as the road for the time of year. However, his win in Cheltenham can be described as laboured and the tank was most certainly empty crossing the line. I would have a slight doubt about his ability to handle the festival pace and that is a pretty big doubt to overlook if you are only being laid 9/2. I would deem the value in this race to be represented by the 6/1 shot Steps to Freedom trained by Jessica Harrington, whose string are on good form lately. The each way alternatives for this race would be Willie Mullin’s charge Midnight Game, especially if Davy Russell decides to ride him as that would indicate he is in better form than Russell’s other options. Useful information from a gambling perspective is that Boylesports are refunding all bets if an Irish trained horse wins.
The second race is the Racing Post Arkle Challenge trophy and is a relatively easier race to make decisions on this year. The Arkle is rarely simple to make calls on as it is a tough race run over two miles at a good clip. This year, however, we have been gifted the treat of having the Nicky Henderson trained Sprinter Sacre run in the race. This French bred gelding is only 6 years of age and is already being tagged as a super star. Barry Geraghty will be onboard come Tuesday and has quite openly described his mount as the best horse he has ever ridden, bear in mind this is the same Barry Geraghty who has ridden the likes of Moscow Flyer and Kicking King. High praise indeed. His ability is reflected quite clearly in his price and I think he will do the business. However, I think it is important to point out that if you are going to have a punt in this one Paddy Power are refunding all single bets if Sprinter Sacre is first home. I would still be confident that he will win but Mr. Power has offered similar deals before and in several cases the horses in question have been beaten; namely Dunguib, Cousin Vinny and Cue Card. If you don’t want to lump on the favourite here I would be inclined to go to Paddy, back the horse you fancy and more than likely get your refund, but it’s worth a shot. Notables in the race are last year’s Supreme Novice’s winner Al Ferof and Colin Tizzard’s Cue Card. If you fancy small money on a rank outsider I’m reliably informed by trainer of Knockcroghery John Nicholson that Foildubh was very unlucky to be beaten in Navan last time out and has a very good run left in him this season. He considers this horse to be very much worth an each way punt at 80/1.
Next up is the JTL speciality Handicap chase, and this is a wide open affair. The market doesn’t show any major money for one horse and the field is pretty cautiously spread price wise at the moment. The horse I really like for this one is The Package from David Pipe’s yard. Looking at his previous runs the three mile half furlong distance is what he likes and the ground conditions don’t seem to bother him too much, having won on a variety. He has won and been placed at the track before which is a major plus when looking for a winner for any open race at Cheltenham. The only negative is that he hasn’t gotten a competitive ride since November 2010, but David Pipe isn’t going to have a horse pitch up in a festival race for laughs. I also like Maganimity for Gigginstown, currently priced at 16s. He’s had a weak enough season this year but ran well in the RSA last year and might get into each way money here with the slightly weaker talent running with him. Advice here, back each way if you can because it’s going to be quite difficult to call the winner.
The next is quite possibly the making and breaking of most of the Irish punter’s weeks. The Champion Hurdle run over two miles half a furlong with “I don’t know how much” Irish money riding on Hurricane Fly will have finger nails fairly well chewed. This horse is the real deal, even though he is extremely small, and is most definitely Willie Mullins’ best horse in the string of 37 he has travelled with and is odds on everywhere. I can’t see too far past the little lad in this one, however, word has filtered through from Nicky Henderson’s yard that Binocular is in the best form that they have seen him in at home in nearly two years and represents cracking each way value at 5’s.
Then we have the Glenfarclas cross country Handicap chase run over three mile seven. Willie has the favourite in this one with Scotsirish currently priced at 5/2 and his son Patrick looks set to be in the saddle all things going to plan. I have my doubts about this horse; he has had a very busy season and seems to need to be raced quite frequently. He has a lot of runs with little to show for it and has run a Prestbury park 5 times but to no avail. He also seems to prefer the heavy ground and has quite a high rating of 153 and personally I’m not convinced by what the market suggests. Henry de Bromhead’s Sizing Australia, on the other hand, won this race last year on similar ground and is a lower weight than Scotsirish and is my preference at 9/2.
Next is the OLBG Mare’s hurdle over two mile four which again sees Willie Mullins entering the odds on favourite Quevega in order to win this race for the fourth time. She needs no case made for her as her history proves her superstar status, however she is un-backable at 1 /2 unless you have a couple of grand lying around and you feel good about this one! Swincombe Flame is a good bet here at 10’s and her price is shortening all the time. She has a pretty impressive record since only starting to race over hurdles since November of 2011 with 3 wins and 2 places from her 5 starts. She won’t mind the hard ground too much either, but is perhaps a bit inexperienced and has never run at Cheltenham before.
The final race of the day is the Pulteney Land Investments Novice’s hurdle over two mile 4 and a half. This race is wide open and the market shows the bookies uncertainty. Hunt Ball is worth a look at 7’s and his form is impeccable. Also his owner Anthony Knott would make for an interesting winning connection after recently being fined by the BHA for celebrating the horse’s recent win by getting up on the horse with the jockey and being lead into the parade ring. God only knows what he would do if he wins on Tuesday. The Venetia Williams trained Niceonefrankie is also in with an each way squeak at 16’s coming into the race on good form with back to back wins in Newbury and Leicester both on good ground.
Your Yankee/Lucky 15 selections for tomorrow should definitely include Sprinter Sacre and Hurricane fly as your bankers and the others I would recommend are Steps to Freedom, The Package and Niceonefrankie.
This is it, we start our four day war with the wretched bookmakers and hope to come out in better shape than we went in. The very best of luck with your selections and hopefully we will have plenty of cash to play with for Wednesday.
