Clare Stead
Staff Writer
When I first heard about the six Italian scientists (and one government official who seems to have been ignored in most of the coverage) who were found guilty of manslaughter last week I was shocked. How could scientists be jailed for failing to predict an earthquake?
Even though modern science has a much better understanding of where they are most likely to occur, and what causes them, we still have no way to precisely predict an earthquake.
Earthquakes are the result of unstable geological conditions, and the failure to predict them should not result in a criminal charge. I was under the impression that that was what happened in this case – that these scientists were charged because they didn’t forecast the earthquake that hit the L’Aquila region on April 6th 2009 and resulted in over 300 deaths – I thought it was science on trial. In fact these scientists were charged because they failed to effectively communicate the risks of a possible earthquake.
A similar fate: Galileo
While talking to my mother about the case, she likened it to what happened with ‘that telescope fella’ (yes she was talking about Galileo) and she had a point. Galileo wasn’t convicted because he practiced astronomy; he was convicted because of how he communicated this practice. What Galileo should have done was submit his work to the Vatican for review, as in the 17th century the Vatican had a problem with the unauthorized communication of information that would result in changes to the interpretation of the Bible – such as the suggestion that the Earth not being the center of the solar system.
In the weeks leading up to the L’Aquila earthquake there had been a series of tremors so the scientists were called in to assess the risk, which they judged to be minor. Their mistake was to say there was ‘no danger’.
It was apparently because of this failure to communicate the possibility of an earthquake occurring that thousands of citizens in L’Aquila decided to sleep in their houses rather than outdoors – and subsequently 309 were crushed when the earthquake brought buildings down. This is why the scientists stand accused of manslaughter, but the accusation is still ridiculous.
The series of tremors that hit the area prior to April 6th are relatively common, but would rarely result in an earthquake. If scientists were to advise the evacuation of cities every time there was a remote chance of an earthquake then the result would be a desensitization of the public to the risks – if fire drills were carried out every week you would eventually stop believing there was a chance the fire was real… and that would result in a bigger risk to the community in the event of a real disaster situation. If the L’Aquila area had been evacuated but the earthquake hadn’t struck, would the scientists then have been held accountable for the economic damage?
Damage from the earthquake convicted scientists failed to predict.
Scientists should not be charged in situations like the L’Aquila earthquake; it will result in other scientists avoiding communication altogether, which will do much more harm than good. The Italian scientists have the chance to appeal the charge, and while it is likely they will win it is also a joke that the trial got this far at all.
What we need to take away from this is that a change is necessary in the way science is communicated to the public. As a student of Earth Science with an upcoming Sicily trip (including Mt Etna) I’m keeping my fingers crossed that we don’t get blamed for any volcanic activity. Actually I’ll just keep my fingers crossed that there isn’t any volcanic activity in the first place.
