The Lions pack, pictured here during their last tour to South Africa.
Cathal Groome | Staff Writer
With the Lions tour now only a few months away and having reflected on the 6 Nations, the time has come to try and predict a starting XV for the test matches. Ultimately much can change between now and then with the business end rounds of both domestic and European competitions coming thick and fast. Furthermore with players potentially getting injured and others returning much change can still occur.
1. Cian Healy
The two primary candidates for loose-prop are Cian Healy and Gethin Jenkins. For me Healy edges it primarily for the impact that he has in the loose. One of the primary ball carriers for Ireland, he has also come on leaps and bounds in his scrummaging. His performance against the Australian scrum in the 2011 World Cup highlights this. His absence was notable as the Irish scrum struggled against Scotland. Although question marks over his discipline remain, but he should certainly be in the squad. Gethin Jenkins may not be as obvious a choice as he was years ago due to injuries but he is still the obvious second choice. Mako Vunipola of England would be an outside bet due to his impact in open play, but his scrummaging leaves a lot to be desired, especially as Gatland will be targeting a weak Australian scrum.
2. Rory Best
Before the Six Nations it seemed that Rory Best would stroll into the starting XV. However his lineout throwing throughout the tournament was sub-par. Fortunately for him though many of the other hookers competing for a place have the same issue. Best was as dynamic as ever around the field and acted like a flanker at times. This should prove enough for him but further errant lineout throwing could put his place in jeopardy. Richard Hibbard and Tom Youngs are more than likely battling for the next spot, with Hibbard’s performances in the loose probably giving him the edge.
3. Adam Jones
Adam Jones and Dan Cole are the two main options for tight-head prop. Both are excellent scrummagers and their work-rate in the loose is impressive for tight-heads. However Wales’ destruction of the English scrum in the last round of the Six Nations gives the edge to Jones. Euan Murray has an outside chance but in recent years his powers have waned considerably; he is a safe option and will be available for all tests as there are no test matches on Sundays.
4. Joe Launchbury
Launchbury has emerged as a standout second-row during the autumn internationals and during the Six Nations. He was one of the few English players who deserved the hype which surrounded him during their quest for the Grand Slam. Even if Richie Gray was fit Launchbury would be favourite for the test spot. Wales’ Ian Evans emerged as a very effective second row for the Welsh during the absence of more experienced stars and deserves a place in the squad for consistently high quality performances.
5. Alun Wyn Jones
Wyn Jones may have been injured for much of the Six Nations but his impact was clear when he returned. He was clearly effective for the Welsh pack and provided much in the way of leadership. As a result of this he has even been touted as a potential Lions captain. This is unlikely but he certainly will be a leader within the squad. Geoff Parling is another option. His partnership with Launchbury was very effective for England and he was an excellent lineout operator. Donnacha Ryan has a chance of travelling but is unlikely to make to the test match squad. An interesting potential thought would be Paul O’Connell. Ravaged by injuries lately, he recently returned to action and was his usual inspirational self. If he gets himself back to his previous level of performance then he may not only make the plane but also the test match squad.
6. Chris Robshaw
The back-row is one of the most complicated areas to predict as the most important factor is having a balance across all three positions. Chris Robshaw plays at 7 for England but he is not a traditional openside flanker. He is a big ball-carrier that will put in huge amounts of work on both sides of the ball. He is also being proposed as a potential captain but due to the fact that he is not guaranteed a starting place this seems unlikely. Stephen Ferris would have been odds on to take this position but a season ending injury rules him out. Dan Lydiate is also possible, as well as Scottish captain Kelly Brown.
7. Sam Warburton
Sam Warburton should be one of the first names on the team sheet. David Pocock may be injured for Australia but his replacement will more than likely be Michael Hooper who is an excellent openside and unlucky to have Pocock in front of him. Gatland must pick Warburton as he is one of the few genuine opensides to choose from or else possession could be an issue. His Welsh counterpart Justin Tipuric is another viable option but it is hard to see him overtaking Warburton in the reckoning. An interesting challenger could be Steffon Armitage currently playing for Toulon. The Englishman is having a standout campaign for Toulon but considering his complete absence from the Six Nations it would be unlikely.
8. Seán O’Brien
Sean O’Brien should be picked at Number 8 due to his immense ball-carrying abilities. The Tullow Tank had a disappointing Six Nations but this may have been caused in part that he was picked at openside where he had another tasks to focus on rather than his ball carrying. He could also be picked at 6 for the test match team which would open up a slot at 8. Jamie Heaslip is a candidate but question marks over his performances throughout the Six Nations may have scuppered his chances of playing. Ben Morgan is an excellent ball carrier and could well feature in the test squad. Toby Faletau had a quiet Six Nations for Wales, and thus is in the same boat as Heaslip.
9. Mike Phillips
Scrumhalf is an incredibly difficult position to pick. What is clear is that Mike Philips, Danny Care and Ben Youngs are the three primary candidates. Care and Youngs alternated for England during the Six Nations with Youngs getting the nod more times than not. Both have decent, quick supply and keep opposition defences on guard for any snipes. Care is more of a livewire however and for this is above Youngs in the reckoning. However one must look at the opposition in this position. Will Genia is an outstanding scrumhalf for Australia and is arguably the best in the world. Therefore Mike Philips and his physicality may be picked so as to nullify the threat of Genia with Care coming off the bench to inject some pace into the game. Greg Laidlaw has a chance of coming into the reckoning due to the fact that he can play at outhalf too.
10. Johnny Sexton
Many people may be calling for Owen Farrell after a decent Six Nations. No doubt he is an excellent kicker from the ground and from hand. He is also a very solid defender. However, in truth the hype surrounding him was over the top. Comparisons with Wilkinson were absurd and he still has a lot to learn. The fact remains that he will probably be the back-up to Johnny Sexton. Sexton is the obvious candidate for outhalf. He has excellent kicking and running abilities. Sometimes his game management has been called into question, but whether this is down to him or poor management at an international level remains to be seen. Dan Biggar is in primary position to be third choice but Johnny Wilkinson, currently playing at Toulon could make it in.
11. Alex Cuthbert
There were not many stand out wingers during the Six Nations but one of the few was Alex Cuthbert. For a big man he possesses great pace as shown by his tries against England. The major question mark is over his defence as he can be exploited in that area. George North is another option and were it not for my other option on the wing rather than at full back (as explained later) it could have been an all-Welsh back three. Tommy Bowe returning from injury could make the squad and even the test team but his injury puts him at a disadvantage to the Welsh wingers.
12. Jonathan Davies
Jonathan Davies is the choice for first centre. In truth there is not a great deal of variety in terms of the type of centres. Most options are large hard-running options and Jonathan Davies is arguably the pick of that bunch. As Jamie Roberts has stagnated since his excellent performances in South Africa 4 years ago, Davies has emerged as the best midfield option for Wales with strong running and an appreciation of good lines. His distribution is an area of concern however. Billy Twelvetrees of England has a chance of selection mainly due to the fact that he is a better ball player than most other inside centre options therefore offering different options. Wesley Fofana would be ideal.
13. Brian O’Driscoll
Will this be the end? As an Irish fan I hope not. There is no question that he should be on the plane if fit and healthy. His offload for Simon Zebo’s try in Ireland’s only victory proves this; magic. A partnership with Davies inside him could bring much to the table with Davies’ pace and power allied with O’Driscoll’s skill and ingenuity. Furthermore he is the outstanding candidate for the captaincy. Although on paper he is not the captain of Ireland, it was clear throughout the tournament that he was the leader. He deserves another crack at it after his previous role as captain was ended prematurely. Manu Tuilagi should also be on the plane. He possesses physical traits that few players can match. However he needs to couple this with some other skills which he is currently lacking such as distribution and his tendency to seek contact rather than evade it. He was shown up as very one dimensional against the Welsh in the Six Nations decider.
14. Leigh Halfpenny
Leigh Halfpenny should be in the team either on the wing or at full back. The reason he is on the wing is because of the dearth of quality there. It must be remembered that he began his career as a winger and excelled in the position. He was outstanding during the Six Nations and was voted the best player of the tournament. 18 months ago Chris Ashton may have been a shoo-in for this role but he has been found out and his form has dropped significantly. When not scoring tries he offers very little. Arguably, even Craig Gilroy has risen above him. Gilroy offers something different that the other wingers. He is relatively small and evasive and may well make the plane, but I can’t see him making the test squad.
15. Stuart Hogg
The selection at fullback is based on Leigh Halfpenny playing on the wing. Otherwise he would be here. Stuart Hogg and Rob Kearney therefore would be the other plausible options. Kearney is the experienced international and the safe pair of hands. During the Six Nations and throughout the season he has not been his incisive, attacking self but he has been very solid. Stuart Hogg on the other hand is new and inexperienced but he plays with youthful abandon. He has extreme pace and runs exceptional lines. Furthermore in this Six Nations he improved on the less flashy side of his game. I would choose Hogg, but there is very little between the two.
