Trinity has been successful in recent years in attracting students from north of the border with numbers generally increasing year on year. Lower fees (comparably speaking) and international reputation has had a huge bearing on this. Trinity has also successfully straddled the divide between the two communities and has been adjudged to have been welcoming and inclusive in this respect. With the dissolution of the Northern Irish Assembly and the future of power-sharing hanging in the balance, the upcoming elections to the assembly have a great deal riding on them. As we consider Northern Ireland’s stake in the Brexit negotiations, there are certainly potential implications for Trinity’s sizeable Northern student populace.
The first thing to acknowledge is that nobody really knows where the balance of power will lie after the upcoming elections. The Democratic Unionist Party’s (DUP) reputation has taken a hit with the recent cash-for-ash RHI scandal. Sinn Féin may also suffer at the ballot box if the electorate react badly to their timing in deciding to dissolve the power-sharing agreement. Will there be a swing back to the more moderate wings on nationalism and unionism? The likely answer is, no. We are more than likely in for a slight reshaping of the assembly with gains for all parties, with the exception of the DUP. Who then will be at the table for the all important Brexit negotiations? Issues such as the status of the border and trade relations between the two jurisdictions hang in the balance. It is thus the most important vote in Northern Ireland since devolution. Theresa May, in her white paper on Brexit, has revealed her intentions to devolve greater powers to the regions as control is shifted back to Britain.
Possibly the most pressing issue on the minds of students is the issue of the border and how it will come into play. Sinn Féin will no doubt advocate for a frictionless border control system to facilitate free movement between North and South. In spite of Theresa May’s commitment to a seamless border, it is more than likely that border controls will come into being. A DUP led executive will surely be less adamant in their desire for such a border system. The parliamentary arithmetic will therefore have a huge bearing on this issue. The Irish government will also have a key role to play, but whether or not a potential DUP-led executive would listen to their suggestions is another story entirely. The political players will no doubt have much to say on this issue as Northern Ireland’s relationship with this state, and by extension the European Union, is reassessed and remoulded.
While the border remains the most pressing issue in the minds of students here, the issue of North-South relations could also be in for a major overhaul. With the new Sinn Féin leader, Michelle O’Neil, in place and ready to face an ever more hostile force in the DUP, she is likely to seek out help in the form of the Irish government and legislature – herself very much a disciple of Gerry Adams. She will seek to strike up a relationship with Enda Kenny and involve the government in the Brexit process. Her relationship with the South will likely take the form of an interdependency, placing the North-South relationship to the forefront once more and perhaps seeing a much closer reliance than was seen under Martin McGuinness’s stewardship. She is also known to be a keen proponent of educational co-operation between North and South and may seek to strengthen ties with universities in the South. On the other hand, gains for the DUP extending their 12 seat margin in the assembly would likely see them turn inwards and adopt a more insular approach. Their removal of funding for an Irish language scheme in December does not bode well for North-South educational co-operation. Control of the education post is likely to prove pivotal in determining whether or not Trinity continues to excel in attracting students from North of the border.
Should things work out to the detriment of North-South relations, Trinity and other universities are likely to lose out to Scotland, a favoured destination for many Northern students. Trinity has the capacity to compete with Scotland in appeal and renown. The thing that currently works in Trinity’s favour is the notion of proximity and ease of access. Whatever the status of the border may be, Dublin and Belfast will remain linked by the M1/A1 motorway, meaning that Belfast is no more than two hours from Dublin at any given time.
Trinity also has the potential to increase its appeal regardless of the results on the upcoming elections or indeed the Brexit fallout. Competing universities in the UK have historically outfoxed Trinity when it comes to self-promotion, although the university could do and has done more to enhance its standing in the North. The Trinity Ambassador Programme (TAP) visits schools in the North and helps to establish a link between existing and prospective students. Trinity, currently appealing predominantly to southern CAO applicants, needs to invest to a greater extent in Northern students themselves.
Our university and others thereby have much to contend with when it comes to the issue of the North. Much depends on the arithmetic within the new Assembly and the attitude taken by any future leader of the DUP. Northern Irish Trinity students are likely to follow the upcoming elections with understandable scrutiny and trepidation. It is no coincidence that since the signing of the Belfast Agreement some 19 years ago, Trinity has seen a corresponding influx in students crossing the border to study here. Any retrograde steps made could see all discernible progress lost.
Having said this, Trinity has established such a solid foundation for itself in the North that will likely see it through for some time to come. The changing relationship between North and South will have an eventual bearing on every aspect of policy from education to trade and beyond. However, should things change dramatically, Trinity stands to lose a lot more than other Irish universities in its attempt to attract students from North of the border. Time will tell whether or not we are right to be sceptical.
