In just over a week’s time, Trinity students will be voting in a preferendum on one of the most complex, contested and arguably irresolvable issues of our island’s history: a united Ireland. The vote will be occurring midway through negotiations on power-sharing in Northern Ireland after one of the most historic and remarkable elections since the creation of the state. Unionism no longer holds a majority in the Northern Irish Assembly, while Sinn Féin are a hair’s breadth away from being the assembly’s largest party. If the organisers of the preferendum wanted a symbolic moment to hold their preferendum, they got it.
Yet the timing is both a curse and a blessing, adding not only an extra level of scrutiny on those supporting a stance on Irish unity, but also raising another element of uncertainty to the wider debate. How will supporters of Irish unity respond to a potential return to direct rule or a long, protracted period of negotiation? Indeed, the most problematic event for the pro-unity side might be a peaceful, progressive and successful return to power sharing – they will need to prove that this is the best time for a question on the North’s constitutional position, after one of the most divisive campaigns in recent years.
One of the biggest hurdles the pro-unity side may have, however, is that largely middle-class Trinity students have never been the biggest fans of Sinn Féin. In a poll by The University Times before the general election last year, only 8.8 per cent of students said they would vote for the party. It is unlikely that support for the party has changed much since. This is problematic for the pro-unity campaign. It is unlikely that the vast majority of Trinity students were following the Northern Irish election in great detail. It is even less likely that many would welcome with open arms a state where, very soon, Sinn Féin could be the dominant force.
The onus is on the pro-unity side to provide a clear vision for where a yes vote will take Trinity College Dublin Students’ Union (TCDSU). This is easier said than done. There has, as of yet, been no clear call for a border poll from any party. We still await negotiations to begin, and there could be a new DUP leader within the coming days and weeks. This isn’t to pre-empt the pro-unity side’s campaign – perhaps these issues will be addressed. But when the meaning of the vote is still being picked over in Northern Ireland, students must know what kind of measures and actions they will be voting for.
One thing is clear, however. The election has proved that the North is complex, parochial and unpredictable. Our own preferendum, coming as it does in the wake of a topsy-turvy election, is also guaranteed to be unpredictable. But let’s make sure, when campaigning begins, that both sides remember that the North requires more than a yes or no answer.
Correction: February 6th, 2017
An earlier version of this article incorrectly referred to the referendum on Irish unity. In fact, it is a preferendum.
