The referenda and preferenda, currently taking place in colleges across the country, are intended to solve a problem. It is a problem that has lasted decades, one that has cost thousands of lives and has touched thousands more. For the last 10 years, the problem has been edging towards a reasonably acceptable solution. Power sharing, for so long a dirty word among both nationalists and unionists, has become a reality. There have been wobbles here and there, with upsurges in violence and bomb scares, but for most people, the world of the last 30 years is a distant memory.
There is nothing wrong with trying to solve this problem. Numerous people have tried. Tony Blair, Bill Clinton, Mo Mowlam and Bono, to name but a new. Now, Trinity College Dublin Students’ Union (TCDSU) might soon be adding its name to the list, alongside numerous students’ unions from across Ireland. Their interventions come following Britain’s decision to leave the EU, which has left many people wondering, once again, where the future of the border lies.
Groups across the country have decided that the best way to help the North navigate Brexit is to hold referendums on a united Ireland. Now, we all know that you shouldn’t use a hammer to crack a nut. We’re all also aware that two wrongs shouldn’t be used to make a right. I think we should now also know that, following Brexit, a complex question can’t be given a simple answer.
At the end of the day, we have decided to fix a problem caused by a stupid referendum with another hasty preferendum.
Some people have objected to the preferendum on the grounds that the topic is divisive or that some students might feel alienated. The argument is nonsense – divisive questions should be discussed alongside every other issue. Caution gets us nowhere and would ensure the vast majority of issues on which there isn’t some arbitrary level of consensus wouldn’t get debated.
There is another, much more straightforward reason why we shouldn’t be holding a preferendum on a united Ireland: it’s complicated.
Let’s say students vote yes this evening. What are they voting for?
The Neutrality campaign has told us it wants a united Ireland one day. The pro-unity side has told us it wants a united Ireland one day too. The neutrality campaign has warned us of the consequences of Brexit – now is a bad time to be debating constitutional issues when an even more imminent constitutional question is looming over the entirety of the UK. Pro-unity also told us that Brexit is a bad thing. But it also said it’d lobby for a soft border, before moving on to lobbying for no border. The neutral side also, presumably, doesn’t want a hard border.
Neutrality also told us they it want to spook unionists in the North – that talk of a referendum could flare up violence. The pro-unity side also promised to do the best it could to accommodate unionist voices into the united Ireland debate.
So, after nearly a week of campaigning, we arrive at the answer. Two disparate groups of Trinity students want a united Ireland one day. One side is more patient and cautious. Except the other side also say they’re cautious. A nationalist from West Belfast called for a united Ireland on the steps of the Dining Hall, but, campaigning as he was for the neutral side, wasn’t nationalist enough for the other nationalists wearing different coloured t-shirts.
I’m not objecting to the aims of the pro-unity side – they are no doubt sincere. But it is impossible to escape the fact that the best answer we have come up with to a chaotic shambles of a referendum in Britain is to hold a preferendum of our own, on an issue just as complex, and 10 times more contentious, than any question of EU membership.
The North, it is important to remember, is a place where “suspicious object” warnings are read out alongside traffic reports. As someone who grew up in Northern Ireland, it is a place where Brexit has raised concerns about a return to violence, about border disputes and an end to power sharing. It is a place that craves certainty. Those supporting these referenda might think that 20 years since the Good Friday Agreement is enough time to have allowed things to simmer down. It isn’t.
I want to know how the timeframe for unification will take place. How will the views of unionists be accommodated? How will the South of Ireland support the North financially? Will there be a federal structure introduced and will the likes of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil be encouraged to run for election in places like Tyrone and Fermanagh? What happens if the North votes to stay in the UK? Or if young people vote to remain and the older generation vote to leave? If the debate is full of misinformation, alternative facts and vague mentions of sovereignty? Will Stormont be closed or will a federal structure be formed? Could the pro-unity side accept joint authority? Is there any way to tell the North won’t descend once again into civil war? How long will it take before certainty is established? And will we be forced to create a new constitution, one that is acceptable to the unionists in the North?
Neither side want to shut down discussion – that’s clear enough from the campaign. But a preferendum campaign has only polarised a debate between two sides that actually have a lot in common. It is the prerogative of those campaigning for a position to make clear what the result of a “yes” vote will be. Whether you agree with repealing the eighth amendment or not, it is reasonably clear what most people campaigning for repeal are looking for – the removal of the eighth amendment from Ireland’s constitution, with abortion regulated by less restrictive legislation, like most other developed countries. The student centre referendum is also an example of there being a clear outcome – my vote to support it will hopefully lead to a student centre being built, the cost of which students will contribute to.
Using a referendum to determine the unity of Northern Ireland is not going to deliver a clear outcome. When all is done and dusted this evening, we’re not going to have a clear outcome. If students vote for pro-unity, they’ll have voted to support Trinity College Dublin Students’ Union (TCDSU) lobbying against Brexit and a hard border. They’ll have voted for marriage equality and repeal the eighth and a soft Brexit and for aspirations of being a nation once again.
If students vote for neutral, they still want unity one day. They would also probably support TCDSU getting the best deal for Northern Irish students from Brexit. They would probably also support campaigning against a hard border. They all probably support marriage equality and many would also enjoy seeing Northern Ireland making progress on abortion rights.
So, when you’re voting, make clear what you’re voting for. Vote for the side that want to make sure the discussion and debate remains open and no one feels alienated or oppressed. Which just happens, it seems, to be both sides.
