As the old adage goes, “if you don’t vote, you can’t complain”. While there have been no shortage of complaints about political movements and figures in recent years, there seems to be a growing tendency for voters to become more disengaged, disillusioned and ultimately disenfranchised. Issues like these, and their potential solutions, are as relevant in campus elections as they are in the national political arena.
Student engagement with the union is at an all-time low. Since 2014, turnout at Trinity College Dublin Students’ Union (TCDSU) elections has dropped by 38 per cent, and in addition, the recent union opt-out movement, which has been accompanied by similar movements throughout the country, has been a matter of concern for candidates. The movement has become a hot topic on campus, attracting a thinkpiece in the controversial Burkean Journal and forming the basis for a recent motion at one of the College Historical Society’s Wednesday night chamber debates. However, there is evidence that the movement’s power may have been exaggerated. A Facebook group established to promote the movement currently has just over 200 likes, and there has been little sign of a referendum actually taking place.
Nationally, the story is more complex. Barely 65 per cent of the electorate turned out to vote in the 2016 general election, down nearly five per cent from the election in 2011. At the same time, 2015’s marriage equality referendum saw the fourth-highest turnout for any referendum in the history of the state. There is also evidence that due to the common practice of over-registration on the Irish Electoral Register, figures indicating voter disengagement may be slightly exaggerated. In spite of this, Dr Grainne Healy, Co-Director of the Yes Equality campaign for marriage equality, recognises that society has seen a shift away from engagement with politics. Speaking to The University Times, she says that “a sense of distance from political decision-makers and voters” can be noted in the current political climate.
A sense of distance from political decision-makers and voters can be noted in the current political climate
This lack of engagement poses a challenge for political parties and movements alike. With support slipping, parties have had to work harder for every vote. In an interview with The University Times, fellow Yes Equality campaigner Noel Whelan, who is also a columnist and political commentator for the Irish Times, emphasises what disengagement means for the political class: “every decision a voter makes is a political act”, adding that nowadays “in addition to persuading people to their point of view, everybody regarding political movements has to persuade people to act on that point of view by voting in an election”. Healy, meanwhile, notes that voter turnout is “vital in promoting democracy”. Speaking to The University Times, Prof Gail McElroy, Head of the School of Social Sciences and Philosophy at Trinity, claims that the causes of this phenomenon are difficult to explain: “There’s this kind of weird conundrum or paradox, to the extent that the things that predict voting turnout like education and affluence and resources have all increased, and yet voting turnout has decreased over time.”
Many factors have been discussed by commentators as the main cause of voter disengagement, including what McElroy calls “the usual suspects”: apathy and political distrust. Some factors, however, indicate a change in the way politics is likely to operate in future.
A consistent body of research and commentary claims that voters, and young voters in particular, respond better to big issues than to traditional party politics. In the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, for example, 85 per cent of 18 to 24-year-olds exercised their right to vote, with 75 per cent of 16 and 17-year-olds also capitalising on their newfound enfranchisement. Whelan feels that voter disengagement in general elections can be seen “in part because the younger generation or millennials as voters are less interested in parties and personalities but are specifically interested in issues”. He considers the marriage equality referendum an example of one such issue which mobilised younger voters and drew them to the polls, and it is hoped by commentators and politicians alike that the upcoming referendum on the eighth amendment will do the same.
Social media posts and meme pages are slowly replacing the traditional emphasis on posters.
This issue-based politics could be causing parties to lose relevance in today’s political climate. McElroy argues that disengagement in elections is linked to a “lack of alignment with parties”. She claims that “in the past, there were higher levels of party membership and people inherited a partisanship from their family”, but that nowadays it’s “more difficult for parties to mobilise voters”. Certainly, parties seem to be losing paid-up members. The UK Conservative Party, for example, had just under 150,000 members in 2013, but recent estimates indicate that that number has fallen to around 100,000 and may be as low as 70,000. In addition, researchers at Queen Mary University of London found that upwards of 40 per cent of the party’s members are over 65. This decline in traditional political parties has given single-issue groups room to expand and increase their membership. In 2015, the UK Green Party made the news as it overtook the Liberal Democrats and the UK Independence Party in terms of membership numbers, at one stage signing up 2,000 members a day.
Faced with an unamused electorate, politicians at both student and national levels have a tendency to turn to stunts to attract attention and, by extension, votes, and McElroy describes how in particular “small parties are always looking for visibility”. In professional politics, these stunts can range from the simple and effective to the subtle and coordinated. Campaign managers try to influence voters’ perception through seemingly innocuous events, such as Enda Kenny’s turning sod at what will eventually become Cork City’s Event Centre during his campaign for the 2016 Election, or Jeremy Corbyn’s tendency to give speeches in safe Labour seats on the 2017 Campaign, forcing the media to report rapturous crowds at his rallies. Whelan argues that it’s the latter type of stunt that truly draws in voters. “The really successful stunts are the ones that people don’t see as big stunts”, he says, adding that “the really successful strategists are those who can make stunts look authentic, if that’s not a contradiction in terms”.
Stunts have their place in student politics as well. In previous years, stunts by candidates for roles in TCDSU have included a grand opening of the Arts Block and campaigning with placards made of wood from the demolished Luce Hall, a former Trinity sports block.
The younger generation or millennials as voters are less interested in parties and personalities but are specifically interested in issues
In addition to on-the-ground campaigning, social media has become increasingly crucial in swinging election campaigns. Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party’s surge in votership in the 2017 general election has been widely attributed to its strong, consistent online presence, combined with the work of online activist group Momentum. Sinn Féin’s politicians have become famous for their accessible and humorous use of online media, and the 2016 Irish general election was widely cited as the first “digital election” in the history of the state. Discussing the importance of a visible social media presence, Whelan claims that “too many parties are still relying on the traditional forms of communication with voters”, while in reality, a majority of the electorate “are now consuming their news in particular through social media and online sources”. These considerations may seem far removed from student politics, but with three of this year’s candidates in the TCDSU elections operating their own meme pages and Facebook communities, there’s a strong chance that online strategising could play a significant role in campaigning.
While there are some who argue that politics can never be quantified, Whelan asserts that “political campaigning and political activity is something that can be forensically and intensely planned”. McElroy claims that politics has become “heavily professionalised since the 1960s”, and this scientific worldview seems to be the current outlook among political parties and movements with data collection recently becoming a big business. Data analysis company Cambridge Analytica, for example, has been credited by some as a key influencer in both the Brexit referendum and the 2016 US Presidential Elections. While terms like “data harvesting” and “psychological warfare” may sound like something from a horror film, the use of social media and other online tools to gather information on prospective voters and subtly influence their opinions has become the bread and butter of campaign strategists the world over.
While many of the figures discussed above appear to suggest that parties and politicians are unlikely to recover, evidence to the contrary suggests it may not be all bad. While the exact numbers are disputed, it’s clear that Labour experienced a surge in voters in the wake of Jeremy Corbyn’s comparatively successful election campaign last year, and even before that the party experienced an increase of more than 150,000 members between 2013 and 2016. Equally, McElroy argues that “alternative forms of participation” in politics has increased among voters. These could include involvement in activist movements, or organised protests from the electorate.
Bearing these considerations in mind, it still seems that politicians need to do more to engage with voters and attract their attention. Candidates for this year’s TCDSU elections will no doubt try every option available to them to gain the attention of a sometimes apathetic student population, and campus will no doubt be flooded with flyers and manifestos for the next two weeks. If national elections and previous TCDSU campaigns are anything to go by, however, getting voters to show up to the polls next week will be no easy task.
