The world’s political landscape is arguably at its most interesting point in our living memory. The Society for International Affairs (SOFIA) capitalised on this yesterday by presenting Trinity lecturer Dr Emanuel Coman for a talk explaining the US midterm elections. Coman gave expert insight into the complex situation currently playing out in America.
The US midterms will culminate in two months, and judging by the turnout at the event, public interest in the subject has certainly increased. Even Coman expressed surprise at the size of the audience. People, he said, “usually don’t care about midterm elections”. And really, he had a point. Voter turnout for midterm elections is usually quite poor and seats in the House of Representatives rarely shift significantly. But the storm that hit American politics two years ago when Donald Trump was elected broke all the rules. He caused states with traditionally Democratic leanings to turn red, suggesting that, in these midterms, anything is possible.
Coman briefly explained how not all states elect new senators, with only a third of all senators running in the midterms. It’s no surprise that with Trump being Republican, Democrats hope to gain a majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate, which together constitute the US Congress.
However, it’s an “oversimplification”, Coman said, to believe that Democrats will gain the majority simply by votes. The major reason, according to Coman, is “gerrymandering”, which means voting districts have been redrawn to ensure that the most Republican voters are in one district. At this question a few hands sprung in the air to ask how “local politicians” would know which lines to draw? And the answer is simple. Voter registration databases contain information on everyone who has ever voted. It’s actually quite scary to see how easy it is to keep tabs on strangers’ personal voting history.
Coman suggested that the Democrats have brought this consistent loss of regional areas onto themselves by ignoring “local politics”. He said that Obama should have done more to acknowledge the local levels of government, and added that he wouldn’t be surprised if the Democratic Party didn’t gain any victories this term. The next question Coman tackled was why the Republicans were uncomfortable about the upcoming midterms. There are, he said, a few answers to this question, because if the Democrats win power, Trump’s political agenda could be undermined. There’s even speculation that the US President could be impeached if the Democrats win power.
The audience’s participation in this event is what really made it stand out. If you’d said four years ago that an entire lecture hall would have been full of students eager to learn and comment about the US midterm elections, you’d have been laughed out of College. It was fascinating to see how different events, such as the #MeToo movement, can translate into overtly party-political movements.
Most of those attending had a clear understanding of what’s happening in America. But the way in which Coman answered each question made it possible for those of us less invested in US politics to leave the room with a full picture of the situation across the Atlantic.
The consensus in the room was that everything is too circumstantial to know for sure what will happen. What is undeniable, however, is that this is the first midterm election in a long time that has garnered such public interest.
