Two Trinity economists have warned that a united Ireland would “collapse” Northern Ireland’s regional economy and cause a “major cut” to the standard of living of those living in the Republic of Ireland.
Research published by Trinity, written by adjunct professors Edgar Morgenroth and John Fitzgerald, issues a stark warning that unification would cost those living north and south of the border, with those in the Republic predicted to suffer a fall of between five and 10 per cent in the event of a united Ireland.
The two economists wrote in a report published this summer that the UK currently props up Northern Ireland to the tune of almost £10 billion a year. If the Republic was to take on the responsibility for this subsidy, they wrote, “massive pressure” would be placed on its economy.
In order to fund Northern Ireland’s deficit, the Republic of Ireland would have to make cuts to public services, or increase taxes, amounting to between €20 billion and €30 billion, they wrote.
The report says Northern Ireland’s economy has “suffered from very low productivity growth” in recent decades, and says that Brexit “will, undoubtedly, have serious negative consequences” for Northern Ireland.
“The best economic outcome for Northern Ireland”, Fitzgerald and Morgenroth wrote, is one where future UK governments commit to providing continuing large transfers to Northern Ireland for at least a further decade in return for a change in regional economic policy aimed at promoting economic growth”.
Speaking to the Irish Sun, Fitzgerald said that in the case of unification, “you’re talking in terms of half to two-thirds of the cuts which we experienced in the crisis would be needed to fund the North”.
He said that the “North has a very fundamental problem and that is that they have the worst educational system of any region in the UK, which is in turn not as good as the Irish”.
