Vikram Sarabhai, founder of the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) reminds us that “He who can listen to the music in the midst of noise can achieve great things.” India’s approach to space exploration, and likewise the political implications of its major success in the sector, is an extraordinary melody that falls upon deaf ears among the great power noise.
The United States’s program, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and China’s program, the China National Space Administration (CNSA) with Russia’s program, the State Corporation for Space Activities (“Roscosmos”) have been quietly racing to the moon. While not as conspicuous or ostentatious as the space race of the 1960s, space remains a high-stakes geopolitical battleground. Currently, China and Russia have a joint space program, the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS). In 2021, they signed a “Memorandum of Understanding between the Government of the People’s Republic of China and the Government of the Russian Federation Regarding Cooperation for the Construction of the International Lunar Research Station.” Some have likened their partnership to a 20th-century Baptist-bootlegger coalition, where Baptists and bootleggers banded together to lobby for the prohibition of alcohol. China is motivated by the promotion of multilateralism and advancement in technological fields (like the potential to mine helium-3 on the moon). However, Russia is largely excluded from Western-led space programs due to sanctions and seeks to maintain geopolitical relevance with its struggling space industry. However, both countries want to overtake the U.S., and, respectively, establish themselves as a leader in space exploration and beyond. The ILRS program has expanded rapidly, constituting a multipolar space bloc.
International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) countries map, created with mapchart.net
The United States opted to establish the Artemis Accords in 2020, a “non-binding set of principles designed to guide civil space exploration and use in the 21st century”. It currently has 53 signatories. The Artemis Accords represent a crucial move by the U.S. to align the world with NASA as the permanent space leader. The Artemis Accords also aimed to build on the Outer Space Treaty (OST) of 1967 (Article II of which prohibits the extraction of minerals from extra-terrestrial bodies) and the Agreement Governing the Activities of States on the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies of 1979 (which extends the Common Heritage Principle (CHP), reading “The Area and its resources are the common heritage of mankind” to space), but violated both by explicitly attempting to further integrate the private sector and permit mining on the moon. 15 U.S.-based companies presently dominate the international private space sector. Further, the aforementioned helium-3 isotope, found on the moon, has the potential to power nuclear fusion reactors. If controlled by private corporations, helium-3 will be one of the most profitable energy sources ever.
Artemis Accords signatory countries map, created with mapchart.net
India’s ISRO, however, has proven to be an unlikely wrench in the common operations of “East vs. West” space skirmishes. In 2023, ISRO’s Chandrayann-3 soft landed on the Moon’s south pole, becoming the first nation to do so. That same year, they sent Aditya-L1 on a solar observation mission. As of right now, the IRSO is starting trials for its first human spaceflight mission, Gaganyaan. Their ambitions include more exploration of the Moon and Mars, in addition to a Venus mission and deep-space exploration.
The ISRO’s budget is ₹130.4 billion, or ~€1.3 billion. NASA’s budget is $25 billion (~€24 billion), China’s is ¥101 billion (~€13 billion), and Russia’s is ₽942 billion (~€10 billion). While the ISRO has a little over 5% of the budgets of the U.S. or Russia and China combined, it has been able to launch space missions before any of them. Famously, ISRO’s Mangalyaan (Mars mission) cost less than the Hollywood film Gravity. NASA has dependably continued to delay its moon mission and the ILRS (despite limited outsider knowledge of plans) has certainly not sent anyone to the moon. The ISRO has launched multiple crafts on a shoestring budget, firing off mission after mission, seeing success after success.
India is a signatory to the Artemis Accords. However, this was only after it became clear, through ongoing and highly contentious discussions, that India would not be mandated to industrially align with the United States. India has continued to refuse collaboration with NASA, developing indigenous space capabilities, including the Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV), the Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GLSV), and the Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV). India also continues to participate in the BRICS (an intergovernmental organization consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and more). The ISRO is therefore able to collaborate with both ILRS-aligned and Western space programs by strategically refusing complete collaboration. Indeed, they get a lot done anyway, for a lot less.
The ISRO’s space triumphs also allow India to forge its own path. The ISRO can help nearby nations with satellite launches and position itself as a leader in space power for the Global South, which has been through collaborations with organisations including NASA, the ESA (the European Space Agency), and JAXA (the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency). Furthermore, the ISRO has collaborated with Roscosmos on flight suits, couches, rate sensors, and space-capable materials, specifically for the upcoming Gaganyaan mission.
India values open space governance, and its strategic non-alignment but collaboration across political lines has helped it immensely. India keeps China at arm’s length by challenging its regional space dominance, while also not offending the BRICS via non-alignment with the U.S.. India is also able to bolster its position in global alliances like the Quad (with the U.S., Japan, and Australia, all of which have varying degrees of established space agencies). As space is heating up, India is adapting at exactly the right time, positioning itself to be a major player in the lunar economy. India represents a departure from Cold War-era space alliances, instead opting to build flexible partnerships while keeping core capabilities in-house.
Space is strategic. Nations who ignore space will cede influence to those who dominate it now. Space dominance means control over communication, navigation, and defence systems. Additionally, isotopes like helium-3 or other unknown minerals and assets could prove to play a major role in the future economy. The United States has already scrapped international law, and the ILRS never regarded it in the first place. India’s moves in the space sector have been strategic and efficient, their autonomy and prosperity will soon play a major role in how space resources are used, and likewise the future of space laws like the CHP or OST.
India’s space gambit is paying off. ISRO’s rise is more than a scientific marvel, it has represented a highly calculated ambiguity in global politics. India can take what works, and leave the rest. As NASA and the ILRS compete for lunar dominance, the ISRO remains a dark horse. As the ISRO grows in ambition and continues to thrive, India will continue to cement itself as a rising power.
The lesson? Don’t bet against India.
