President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan called oil and gas as a gift of God at the beginning of COP29 – annual UN Climate Conference. The leader of the host country highlighted sun, wind and gold in the same remarks. The COP29 Climate Summit finished on November 24th with an absurd agreement on the financial support for the Global South which leads to a question – what change these conferences really bring? The politics behind this year’s COP in Azerbaijan were extremely controversial, starting with the human rights index of the COP host country which scores at 0.36 together with Libya and Venezuela. In spite of a negative, and in many instances true, portrayal of Azerbaijan on the international stage, COP29 broke the record for the number of participants as more than 80 000 people attended the conference. The citizens of Baku were extremely proud of the fact that their country hosted the conference – from the taxi drivers to policemen guarding the streets making sure that participants were taken care of (at least in my case). However to really understand COP29 we must go back to President Aliev’s remarks about oil, coal and wind as the gifts of God. The status quo is not going to change. Azerbaijan used this conference to expand their fossil fuel business. Nevertheless even denialist policymakers are aware that natural resources have their limits. It is hard to believe that the Azerbaijani leader mentioned wind and sun without a reason.
This year’s COP was my 4th in the journey as a climate advocate which I started in the Greta Thunberg’s movement Fridays For Future. This November I attended COP in person together with Emily Laverty and Sheenagh Rowland as Trinity Delegates. Personally I was representing environmental NGO Earthday.org, the organization standing behind the first Earth Day in 1970. Our mission in Baku was to advocate EU Member States to integrate climate education in the NDCs (climate goals) in 2025. The ultimate goal is for all EU countries to teach about climate change at schools and universities. The task was not easy, we had planned to meet 27 EU governments during 6 days of our stay and encourage them to support our proposal for climate education in the NDCs. You might ask, is taking an 8 hour flight with a stop in Istanbul to attend a climate conference in a country based on fossil fuels climate friendly? The answer would be an honest yes, as instead of 27 flights to EU capitals we traveled to Baku only where all negotiators and policymakers were at hand. There is no other such climate event with key actors in one place. If we succeed with our goal to educate all Europeans about climate change the carbon footprint of our travel would definitely be compensated by the actions people will take as a result of this education.
Arriving in Baku
Nevertheless, this COP was different from the very beginning. Already on the plane to Baku, delegates were exchanging news about the ongoing negotiations and worrying about the future climate progress in the era of the Trump Administration. The BBC report of the COP29 President making fossil fuel deals under the table at the heart of climate negotiations has made the civil society (and many diplomats) really upset. Unfortunately, it did not come as a surprise – according to Global Witness the UAE oil company, whose CEO was President of COP28 Conference last year, earned close to $100 billion in 2023 using the international platform of climate negotiations to make business deals. The atmosphere was really negative, with many key heads of states including President Joe Biden, President Lula of Brazil or EU Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen choosing the G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (Nov 18-19th) as a better platform to discuss investments in the green transition. The international community seemed a bit divided between the most powerful leaders attending G20 in Rio and thousands of diplomats, entrepreneurs and civil society members going to COP29 in Baku.
The location of the COP determines not only the results of the conference but also the geopolitics behind the climate diplomacy process. The question everyone asks is why was the COP in Azerbaijan? The answer is quite simple: Russia. It is important to remember that at the UN the world is divided into five regions (African, Asia-Pacific, East Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the Western European and Other States which include US, Canada and 5 other countries) , Each of the regional groups hosts the COP every five years – COP27 Egypt (Africa), COP28 UAE (Asia-Pacific) and this year time came for Eastern Europe. In the UN definition this vast region spans from Poland to the Azerbaijani shores of the Caspian Sea. The tradition is that before one COP ends the host country for the next COP is announced, before that happens member countries of the regional group need to agree on the candidate. Last year in Dubai the Russian Federation rejected the proposal of all EU member states and its allies to host the annual climate conference, naturally the EU block rejected Russia. Therefore Armenia and Azerbaijan were left as an option. Baku was chosen in the process of consensus. Neglecting the geopolitical arrangements, the capital of Azerbaijan is well prepared to host a conference for 80 000 people as it has an international airport, an abundance of hotels and an experience of organizing international conferences in the past. From a perspective of the participant COP29 was extremely well organized – buses could take you from the center to the conference venue, there were lots of spots to buy food and drinks, the stadium where COP took place was manageable for walking or (like in some cases like when you are late for meeting the French delegation ) for running distances too. Nevertheless the view of the COP in the media and the lack of ambition in the negotiation process outweigh the infrastructure advantages of this location.
Climate politics may seem disencouraging and complex, but in the end it gets to a simple term: money. At the beginning of the talks Azerbaijan countries discussed $.1.3 trillion to be transferred to the most affected countries by climate change every year till 2035 for the purposes of advancing the green transition and mitigating the effect of climate change. The funds were planned to come from 23 developed countries and the EU block. When negotiations came to an end the outcome was disappointing for the Global South. The richer nations have agreed to transfer 300 billion USD a year, posing a question of where 1 trillion has gone? Ms. Chandni Raina, an advisor with India’s Department of Economic Affairs, speaking on behalf of her country at the plenary session said that this amount is a paltry sum and not something that will enable conducive climate action.
After such an outcome the effectiveness of the COPs is under question mark. Although 300 billion a year is definitely not enough for the Global South to transfer their economies to meet the targets of the Paris Agreement, we need to accept that it is better than nothing. Furthermore, let us observe not only the downturns but also the positive trends. The fact that climate ambitions are not met does not mean that we are not making progress, because actually we are, it is just slower than we planned it to be. The main indicator of this positive change is that the share of primary energy consumption from renewable sources has increased globally and is currently estimated at nearly 15% of world’s consumption – more than 5% increase since 2010. Although the future of the Trump presidency does not look promising for the international climate process, we need to keep the negotiations going and remember that we have made important progress since the 2000s, including the historical Paris Agreement at COP21. When I asked President Mary Robinson about how we as a civil society should proceed in the coming years, she answered with humbleness and perseverance: stay positive, continue your action, and do the right thing.
