The upcoming German election is the most memorable in recent years for a multitude of reasons; it comes as a result of the dramatic breakdown of the government in November, has seen tech billionaire Elon Musk weigh in on matters, and perhaps most notably has likely seen huge gains for the controversial far right AfD (Alternative for Germany) party.
Despite the country’s serious economic concerns, the tone of the election has been largely dictated by the AfD, who have drawn migration issues, and more recently alongside Elon Musk, Holocaust remembrance issues into focus. The electoral happenings in Germany are highly important for the general political climate of Europe. The far right have been making gains in parts of Europe including Italy, Hungary, and Czechia, for some time now, but a legitimate far right success in Germany would signify a significant tone shift which would surely have knock on consequences across the continent.
An interesting facet of German politics is that so much of it, even 80 years on from the liberation of Auschwitz, seems to exist in the shadow of WW2. This has never been more obvious than in the face of the growing popularity of Alternative for Germany (AfD), a far right populist party. For the uninitiated, the party is highly nationalist, opposing both immigration and Islam, and has been frequently linked with Neo-Nazism. The growing popularity of the AfD undeniably poses a dilemma for the other parties in the Bundestag. On a basic level, it makes clear that a large proportion of voters feel that the AfD represents them in a way that the other parties don’t. AfD initially gained traction after criticising Merkel’s government’s immigration policies in the mid 2010s, and have been steadily rising since then, making particular gains off of the back of the Covid-19 crisis. However, the end of WW2 saw the main German political parties place a “firewall” placed around far right and extremist parties in order to prevent their rise to power again. This is to say that other parties have always refused to cooperate with the extreme far right in an effort to safeguard democracy.
In a highly controversial move, this firewall was broken last week by Frederich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). The CDU, in coalition with the CSU, have been leading recent polls, although only roughly 10% higher than the AfD. Less than a month before the election was scheduled to take place, Merz attempted to push anti-immigration legislation through the Bundestag, and planned to rely on the votes of the AfD in order to do so, sparking widespread backlash including from members of his own party, most notably the former German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The bill was narrowly defeated, with a margin of just 12 votes. Regardless, the move to break the firewall was unprecedented and deeply unpopular, giving way to protests occurring across the country.
The breaking of the firewall is a serious and dangerous issue. Simply put, the CDU is legitimising and endorsing the AfD by opening themselves up to being willing to work with them. Centrist and left parties had always placed themselves as being morally above the right wing parties, working amongst themselves and never daring to cross the firewall. It’s interesting to note that mere days after Elon Musk and Alice Weidel agreed “children should not be guilty of the sins of their parents, let alone their great-grandparents”, in reference to the country’s Nazi past, Merz decided to reach out to the AfD, in a way almost tempting history to repeat itself. Of course Merz did not directly endorse the AfD, he still rules out forming any sort of a coalition with them, responding to backlash by outlining his party’s stance of “no cooperation, no tolerance, nothing” in regards to the AfD. However, by asking for their parliamentary votes, Merz is signalling to voters that the AfD are to be taken seriously and are not a fringe or extremist group, as many have painted them to be. It’s difficult to know if Merz was simply attempting to attract some undecided voters away from AfD and towards CDU, or if his motives were even more worrying. It might be the case that this was Merz testing the waters, feeling out what his party members and supporters would think of a possible alliance between the two parties after the election. The popularity of the AfD cannot be discredited, and from a purely numerical point of view, the pair could make a strong coalition.
Whatever the case may be, Merz’s gamble seems to have backfired, with the most recent polls showing a slight drop in support for the CDU. This seems like something of an inevitable consequence, and as Olaf Scholz and others have pointed out, Merz now comes across as untrustworthy. His attempts to backtrack and denounce the AfD seem disingenuous, the damage to his credibility has already been done. With the election set for the 23rd of February, it’ll certainly make for interesting viewing from an outside perspective. A seismic gain for the far right could open the flood gates around Europe, and expedite the already fastly growing highly conservative movement occurring in many countries.
By opening himself up to relying on the votes of the AfD, Merz is playing with fire, and democracy could get burned in the process.
