Philip Engels
September is the beginning of a new college year here in Trinity and in Ethiopia it marks (on the 11th) the start of a new ‘Ethiopian’ year according to the Ethiopian Orthodox Calendar. In this rather isolated nation that is surrounded by conflicts and humanitarian catastrophes, celebrating the arrival of a New Year should bringb much-needed hope for a better future.
While New Year’s Eve is approaching Christian Ethiopians should take the opportunity to unite and reflect upon their current status in a religiously fragmented society. More than ever before, this fragile country is experiencing internal conflicts that often involve religion. As a matter of fact even New Year’s Eve’s official Ethiopian name has sparked a conflict: should it be called Enkutatash (in Amharic) or Ri’se Awde Amet (in Ge’ez)? Ethiopia’s religious and ethnic problems have mainly risen as a result of the spread of Islam in the South and consequently, a cold war between Christians and Muslims. On one side: the predominantly Muslim Oromo – a growing ethnic majority – and, on the other: the politically dominant Christian ethnic groups such as the Amhara and the Tigray. Historically this ethno-religious division was resolved mainly by military means. However, now that modern Ethiopia under the leadership of Meles Zenawi (in power since 1995) claims to have become a ‘federal democracy in transition’, a new approach has to be found in order to reaffirm some kind of fair equilibrium. Will this New Year see new changes: an end to religious and ethnic tensions and the growth of a functioning democratic federal state? Will the Arab Spring in close-by Egypt have an effect on Ethiopia and the current quid pro quo between M. Zenawi and Washington?
From the ancient Axoumite Empire to its medieval kingdoms and princedoms and its recent dictatorships, Ethiopia has seen many leaders come and go but none have been able to solve this eternal issue; will the forces of globalization and the desire for self-determination among ethnic groups such as those in the recently independent South Sudan help change this pattern?
Signs of rapid economic growth: a GDP growth forecast of 9 percent for 2011 (The Economist Intelligence Unit) are rather promising and might help tackle many problems. Reports of booming Indian investments in the country’s primary sector and its infrastructure (doubling to a total of $10 Billion by 2015 according to Bloomberg) or even the construction of new hydroelectric plants partly financed by China have brought much hope to Ethiopia’s fragile economy. Furthermore, the establishment of the ECX (the ‘Ethiopia Commodity Exchange’) in 2008 should ensure the fair distribution of economic profits from the primary sector among “the general public”.
However, a recent article published by the Washington Post questioned the ‘fairness’ of this commodity exchange but also of foreign investments and the general economic progress in the country. Corruption and exploitation (as in the rest of the African continent) remain a central issue. In addition, the countless conflicts with neighboring countries still drain the government’s resources.
So why is this New Year crucial for Ethiopia? Externally, the emergence of a new and independent South Sudan and Egypt’s internal struggles will no doubt translate into a revision of the Nile Treaty and will hopefully give Ethiopia’s 82.1 million people better access to both water and electricity. Political instability in both Eritrea and Somalia could however act either as an advantage or a disadvantage.
Internally, ever-augmenting foreign investments may help Ethiopia reduce its dependence on foreign aid – but will they be met by an equitable distribution of economic profits among the country’s numerous ethno-religious groups? How will Meles Zenawi – Ethiopia’s current president – welcome socio-economic changes and expected attempts to privatize state assets?
An ancient heritage dating back to the 2nd century BC, a cultural and geographical proximity to India, Europe and the Arab world, a developing primary sector as well as recent success stories including Ethiopian Airlines and a growing tourism industry all show that Ethiopia can surely, one day, become one of Africa’s real success stories.
