There is no doubt that this year has been one marked by massive changes to global politics. One only needs to look to Britain leaving the EU, the instability of Turkey or the endlessly volatile President of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte, who has become infamous for his tirade of foul-mouthed abuse directed at Barack Obama, to see that politics is undergoing some kind of cultural shift. Frankly, the 2016 US presidential election is no different. In fact, one could reasonably say that this is the most peculiar American political cycle of the last century.
If you have ever studied a political science module or looked at the topic of international affairs, chances are you’ve heard of the theorist Francis Fukuyama. In his 1992 book The End of History, he famously argued that the advent of Western liberal democracy signalled the end of man’s geopolitical revolution and the so-called “final form” of human governance. Yet even he may be quaking in his boots at the success that the very, very right-wing Donald Trump has had. He tweeted after the final debate this week: “[The] real worry is that Trump’s banner will be picked up by someone much smarter and more self-disciplined next time.”
Whether he is elected as president or not in November, Trump will leave an indelible political mark, not least upon the party which has carried his nomination. Many observers think he has “torn the Grand Old Party apart”, as CNN put it last week. How have Republicans responded to the situation they find their party in? For young Republican voters and campaigners, is Trump simply an outspoken reality TV star with innumerable scandals and sexual assault claims attached, or a viable candidate with a dedication to the conservative movement?
Obama’s two victories in 2008 and 2012 were largely bolstered by young voters. He obtained 60 per cent of 18 to 29 year olds in 2012, a demographic that made up nearly a fifth of the vote (though in the past Democrats have consistently maintained the majority of youth support). Recent polling data suggests that Hillary Clinton has won over the majority of the youth vote. But how have Republican “millennials” responded to this year’s election? In particular, have young Republicans opted to stick with their party or rejected Trump? What future do they see for the conservative values? Do they think “The Donald” can still win the election? To find the answers to these questions, The University Times spoke to three senior young Republicans: Chris Chadzutko, a member of the New York Young Republicans, Chris Ford, Chairman of the Dallas Young Republican Federation, and Brendan Quinones, Chairman of the New Jersey Young Republican Federation.
It’s obvious, however, that the party has undergone considerable change in recent years, changes that a law graduate may not have anticipated. Indeed, no one could have anticipated the rise of Trump.
Over time, the Republican party has arguably become known for its ideological undercurrent of small government and stability, and the millennial grassroots support for Ron Paul in his 2012 presidential campaign is testament to a fondness for minimal government amongst young people. Chadzutko has been involved with the Republican Party for six years. Speaking to The University Times over Skype, he explained to me his background in the party: “I joined after I went to law school. I’ve always been into American history and that wound up leading me to conservative ideals.” It’s obvious, however, that the party has undergone considerable change in recent years, changes that a law graduate may not have anticipated. Indeed, no one could have anticipated the rise of Trump. Asked where he considers the party stands now, he responds: “I think the Trump candidacy is definitely going to hurt the conservative movement. His brand isn’t Conservative, or Republican either. So I think he will turn a lot of people away from the party. The key issue is the timeless values that extend to the founding of our country, that will continue to be timeless, and I think it’s just a matter of getting the message out there.” On the topic of his message, Chadzutko does not consider Trump to be a true conservative – a popular criticism levelled at the businessman, given that he was a Democrat until early 2009. “If you look at his record, he’s been holding very liberal positions on many significant issues for a long time, and it’s only really [the] last five or six years that he’s been saying that I hold these Republican positions, and it doesn’t seem like he grasps what those positions actually are, or how they’re supposed to be implemented. If you listen to him talk he has a lot of big government ideas.”
Quinones similarly joined the party while at university. Living in a traditionally Democratic state, he says over Skype: “I was not happy with the direction of things in my county, Bergen County, and I became the chairperson of my county Young Republicans, and last May I became Chairperson of this organisation. We are the umbrella organisation for the 21 counties in our state, and we direct the activities of our chapters and help them where they need it. We are also a part of the Young Republican National Federation, through which we do campaign events, social events and other activities.” This year, he was a delegate for Florida senator Marco Rubio, and when Rubio dropped off, he was a delegate for Governor of Ohio, John Kasich. Though, he says, he “would have been very happy with almost all of the candidates presented”. His sense of disenchantment is palpable in how he talks of other candidates, clearly rueful of where the party has wound up: “I think any of the candidates that did not become the nominee, if they were running today, you would be looking at a certain Republican victory in November, which is bittersweet really.”
Essentially if Hillary Clinton wins … we are essentially going to write her a blank cheque and let her spend what she wants, and do what she wants with this country. It is looking like the worst-case scenario for the Republican party right now.
For Quinones, the level of governance is crucial to Republican ideals and its support from young people. For him, young Republicans “are ideologically attracted to the idea of a smaller government, lower taxation, the philosophy of personal responsibility and economic development, which are important facets of the Republican platform”. He continues: “Obviously that has changed since Trump’s Presidential campaign, which has thrown a lot of things to the wayside in the way young people view the party, and the way young Republicans view our own party. But at least the majority of young Republicans and the members of our organisation, we still view this party as the best choice for America’s future, and for the various states, towns and counties that are holding elections right now.”
The recent presidential debates have courted perhaps the most controversy of all the events in the electoral cycle this year. But at the very least, they are marked by a deterioration or even absence of political discourse, perhaps demonstrated by Trump threatening to imprison Clinton should he be elected president and the bulk of debate time spent discussing scandals, from accusations of corruption directed to Clinton, to Trump’s sexual assault allegations. Virtually all polling data suggests that Trump has lost all three debates and stands to lose the election next month. For Ford, the consequences for the Republican party could be massive: “At a presidential level it is a personality contest, and for young people trying to fight for Republican principles and issues it is going to make it very difficult, particularly in the down-ballot races, so the House of Representatives and the Senate.” He elaborates on the severity of this, saying: “Since Clinton is polling almost at +11, the races that Republicans weren’t really worried about at the national level are almost going to sway Democrat, so it’s looking like we may lose the Senate. Essentially if Hillary Clinton wins, and it looks like she will win based upon recent polling, we are essentially going to write her a blank cheque and let her spend what she wants, and do what she wants with this country. It is looking like the worst-case scenario for the Republican party right now.”
For Quinones, Trump’s performance in the debates has been lacklustre. “The first debate I think he changed his strategy considerably from the primaries, which was essentially lots of insults directed at his opponents, illogical argumentation, logical fallacies going left and right. I think he did poorly, and the consensus was that he was rambling during questions. The second debate he certainly made improvements on appearance, but I think he reverted to personal attacks and ad-hominems, which had given him success in the primaries. I really dislike that, and would like emphasis to be on issues. I don’t think he’s had any help to improve his standing, and the polls show he will likely lose – it’s almost a certainty unless something drastic were to happen.”
Ford worked on Marco Rubio’s leadership campaign, and remarked how “it was very sad that, when Rubio started dipping in the polls for the primaries, he actually stooped to Donald Trump’s level and started throwing insults at Trump. And then his poll numbers dropped even further. I think the reason you have Trump as the GOP nominee is because you have seventeen people running for our party Presidential nominee, so of course our votes got split up. You had a small majority voting for Trump.” Here, Ford points out that both Democrats and independents may have impacted the vote leading to Trump’s nomination. “A lot of them weren’t actually registered Republicans”, he says. Ford is the Chairman of the Dallas Young Republicans, and also works as the treasurer for the Texas Young Republican Federation. Currently, his team is phone-banking (calling voters to discuss campaign issues) and he explains that from his organisation’s recent campaigning it emerges that many Republican voters are either going to vote for Evan McMullin, an independent candidate from Utah, a state with conservative values so antithetical to Trump’s personal character and track record, or no-one at all.
Chadzutko points out that the outcome of the Republicans losing the election will also have critical effects on the Supreme Court. Finding a replacement for Justice Scalia, who was Associate Justice from 1986 until his death earlier this year, will be a crucial task. With regard to the possibility of Clinton “electing several progressive justices to replace him, looking at past progressive courts, we are still dealing with repercussions from the last two, particularly with Franklin Roosevelt’s appointments at the New Deal in the 1960s.” Roosevelt rapidly expanded economic regulation, the welfare state and reduced emphasis on individualism with his New Deal against profound Republican criticism. Quinones points out the issue of justices too: “Right now it is a Conservative court, and under Hillary Clinton it could become a liberal court. That appointment, whoever makes that appointment, could swing the ideological balance.” Still, for Chadzutko there is a positive outlook for the future of the party. “I think there still is a bright future. If you look at the composition of the party, we have a lot of good, young leaders and a diverse group at that. That’s going to help us going forward. Looking at the Democrats, they are an old party with a very old, uniform group.”
Not only that, though he remarks that the polls “do not look good,” he says that this election will be largely determined by voter turnout: “Hillary does not have the rabid support that Obama had in 2008 and even 2012, she is equally as disliked as Trump. I think the polls might not necessarily be accurate here because as we have seen, Trump has a lot of rabid supporters and it is really going to be turnout driven. As far I have seen, there is no one that is energised for Hillary, and that is going to be a problem for the Democrats.” In fact, polling data shows that there is a lack of energy for both two-party candidates amongst young people – so much so that a poll by staff from Quinnipiac University showed almost half of all voters aged 18 to 34 plan to vote for a third-party candidate, like Jill Stein or Gary Johnson.
But, he adds, the self-destructive tornado of Trump’s rhetoric, against the democratic system, as well as against opponents within his party, has made it virtually impossible to view such candidates as divorced from the mud Trump slung their way.
Like Quinones, Chadzutko remarks that, had Clinton been opposing any other Republican candidate, she might be losing by “potentially 10 to 15 points”. Personally, Chadzutko worked both on the Rubio and Cruz campaigns, and he remarks positively on those two: “Rubio and Cruz were both really bright, and represent the future of the party, and probably should be representing the party in this election. It’s the Rubios and the Cruzs, and the Paul Ryans and the Tim Scotts, the Nikki Haleys that are going to move the party forward and make it successful.” But, he adds, the self-destructive tornado of Trump’s rhetoric, against the democratic system, as well as against opponents within his party, has made it virtually impossible to view such candidates as divorced from the mud Trump slung their way. “Unfortunately because of the Trump effect very few of the good leaders of the party are going to emerge from this unscathed. Because of the demeanor of this campaign and how Trump has been attacking his own members, it’s going to be difficult, particularly concerning rabid Trump supporters, it may be hard for Representatives who did not support the candidate entirely to maintain the support they deserve.”
With regard to the most important policy areas, Chadzutko initially highlights Obamacare: “Obamacare is definitely something that needs to be addressed because the system is collapsing on itself, which was predicted when it got signed into law.” Asked if the border wall is actually viable, he says: “I think it is a viable option – it will definitely help in stemming the flow of people across the border simply because it will be made more difficult.” Then, when asked how one could police a border wall, Chadzutko argues that drone technology and advanced remote camera technology would have to be utilised. However, he says, Trump’s claim that he would “make Mexico pay for the wall” should not be taken seriously, and such claims simply show how much of a showman he really is. Nevertheless, at a time when Republicans are calling for a reduction in public expenditure, the price of a possible border wall is at the very least difficult to justify. For instance, 670 miles of wire fencing on the US-Mexico border was built through the Bush administration’s Secure Fence Act of 2006. This alone cost the taxpayer about $2.4 billion dollars.
For Quinones the most important issue for most Americans, young and older, is the economy. “Our economic growth could be better, and a lot of Americans are not seeing this recovery taking place. If you’re a Donald Trump supporter, immigration is going to be really important too. And he has built a viable campaign really on immigration. I think issues like terrorism are important to people. We had this at the nightclub in Orlando, and here in New Jersey with a guy leaving pipe bombs in bags.” When asked whether he felt that foreign policy would be a deciding factor for young people, he answers: “I certainly wish people cared more about foreign policy as a whole, but when you put it in the context of terrorism, people do care. With Obamacare, it might not necessarily become the top issue – it’s in the back of people’s minds now. The replacement of Scalia is crucial.”
I definitely cannot defend his actions, and as Speaker Paul Ryan has said, Trump has become an undefendable candidate. But, in order to get the policy we want from our Congress and Senate, we need a Republican President.
In many ways the recent sexual allegations could define the outcome of the election. Footage emerged of Trump boasting about openly groping women to television host Billy Bush, followed by numerous reports from several women that Trump had sexually assaulted them. It could be that this has alienated young people from Trump the most, particularly given current mainstream education around sexual harassment, consent and rape culture. Ford addresses this: “I definitely cannot defend his actions, and as Speaker Paul Ryan has said, Trump has become an undefendable candidate. But, in order to get the policy we want from our Congress and Senate, we need a Republican President, and Speaker Ryan has talked to Donald, and he was saying that he would 100 per cent sign the legislation that the Republican House and Republican Senate would come up with.” Not only that, Ford says, there could be a window to control presidential powers should Trump be elected in November. “He also said that Congress have been starting to remove the executive powers that Obama has exercised when signing executive orders, and he thinks they could reduce Trump’s executive power. Of course Democrats would be on board with that too – and that would be something that could benefit both Democrats and Republicans with a Trump presidency.” Ford agrees that Scalia’s replacement will be defining. “I can guarantee you that Hillary is going to appoint young liberal justices just so they can maintain a liberal majority in the Supreme Court for generations to come. The risk is big.”
It is too easy to underestimate the possible consequences of the US vote on November 8th. It is perhaps even easier for us to be totally indifferent. But America’s role in global politics is still significant – and almost certainly will be for a very long time. What these perspectives on the election seem to indicate is that for young Republicans, this election will be defining in several complex ways. Not only in the consequences for the Senate and the House of Representatives, but for the legal sphere, the social climate and, crucially, the Republican movement. But will this be enough to convince young Republican voters to choose Trump on the election ballot despite his frankly sociopathic persona? This election cycle has repeatedly proven that its supplies of surprise or scandal will never be exhausted. Perhaps in the history books it will read that 2016 was the year that politics became irrevocably intertwined with the absurd.
Charlotte Ryan contributed reporting to this piece.
