Brexit is one of the most controversial political events to occur in our generation, having plagued our senses for the past two years since the British public voted in a referendum in 2016 to leave the EU. On March 29th, 2017, the British government enacted Article 50, starting the countdown to the country’s official exit from the EU.
After the success of its event last week, the Society for International Affairs (SOFIA) once again presented a topical event last night, hosting Trinity graduate Andrew Byrne for a talk entitled “Brexit: The Endgame”.
Byrne is a former Trinity College Dublin Students’ Union (TCDSU) President, and has worked for the Financial Times and the Sunday Times. It was clear that he had an in-depth understanding of the political wrangling occurring between Britain and the EU.
Byrne presented a comprehensive narrative of what he thinks will happen over the next few months.
He began his talk by reminiscing about what Trinity was like when he first started in 2003, with a Europhile Prime Minister, Tony Blair, in office in the UK. Now, however, the march of liberal democracy seems to have halted. Byrne also pointed out that Brexit and its outcome is one of the most unpredictable questions in politics today, with the British Cabinet still divided over how to proceed.
Byrne said he believes that “Brino”, a term coined by hardline Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg to denote the UK leaving in name only, is the most likely outcome.
He did express sympathy for “the huge undertaking by this government” and briefly described the original “divide and conquer” negotiating tactic used by the British Government, aimed at sidelining Michel Barnier, the European Chief Negotiator for the United Kingdom Exiting the European Union. However, the recent EU summit was a “sorry end to this diplomatic strategy”. In particular, Byrne said, British Prime Minister Theresa May has not been appealing to leaders with her pre-rehearsed style of speaking.
This upcoming week is pivotal in the Brexit negotiations. The UK will be bringing proposals to the EU about the Northern Irish border. It seems increasingly likely that the UK will pursue a trade deal similar to that of Canada but, as Byrne pointed out, this is not without its problems. It took the EU seven years to negotiate a trade deal with Canada, and the UK does not have the same amount of time.
Byrne predicted that the eventual upshot of Brexit will be a “semi-detached” relationship between the UK and the EU. Byrne said he doesn’t think there will be a second referendum. Making a funny comparison between Michael Gove and Michael Collins – although not in the literal sense – he said that both thought that it was “better to take an imperfect deal now and better to achieve more freedom later”.
In addition, if the UK ever wanted to return to the EU in a generation or so, it would be on terrible terms. This, Byrne said, is why he “thinks Brino will happen”. Brexit, he concluded, will end either as “vassalage or carnage“.
