Conor O’Donovan
Staff Writer
Last week saw the characteristically ostentatious funeral of Kim Jong-il, North Korea’s former President for Life. Motorcades bearing large, smiling portraits of the ‘Dear Leader’ trundled down streets lined with apparently disconsolate mourners. The footage also included supposedly spontaneous interviews with some of those present. These were characterized by an awkward, mechanical eloquence and were light on subject matter. With the death of Kim Jong-il and the installation of his son as successor, North Korea faces an uncertain future, despite the public manifestations of the past weeks.
Many have found the ceremony to be a rather disturbing throwback to other such demonstrations in Red Square or even at Nuremberg. Although somewhat cruder than previous historical examples there can be no doubt that this was a heavily choreographed affair. The uniformity of the hands clasped to grieving mouths and the soldiers filming more than gave this away. Another explanation, however, is that they literally do not know otherwise. North Korea’s people are indoctrinated from birth with Stalinistic ideologies and are presented with Kim Jong-il as a god-like saviour. Such a monumental shift in state affairs could well prove devastating in a country as insular as North Korea has become.
In what has been a year of toppled dictatorships North Korea remains a serious problem. Harsh internal and enigmatic foreign policies have left it cut off from the rest of the world. The fact that the country remains technically at war with neighboring South Korea has compounded this issue. This siege mentality, coupled with a complete lack of contact with the outside world, make it highly unpredictable and dangerous to itself, its neighbours and the world at large. The unveiling this weekend of Kim Jong-il’s son, Kim Jong-un, as his successor looks set to intensify the situation.
Comparisons with the last handover of power in North Korea make it very difficult to be optimistic about the future under Kin Jong-un. Upon Kim Jong-il’s ascension to power, it seemed his reign would mark a turning point in the nation’s fortunes after the lengthy tenure of his father, Kim Jong-sung, the first leader of Communist North Korea. Here was a man with a passion for popular culture and an interest in foreign investment. Jong-il also seemed idealistic, having once been rumoured to have temporarily forced bureaucrats into hard labour to bring them closer to the people. However, perhaps due to a childhood spent in this sheltered environment, Jong-il further isolated his country. He continued many of his father’s policies, while privately indulging himself in expensive cognac and gourmet food.
What makes Jong-un potentially dangerous is that he will be under serious pressure. His father was groomed for his role for upwards of twenty years, effectively gaining control of North Korea in 1985. Kim Jong-un was unveiled as his father’s successor about eighteen months ago and has not previously held high office. Jong-un will undoubtedly be surrounded by various advisors, the most important of whom, it has emerged, will be his uncle Jang Sung-taek. Little more is known about the National Defense Committee’s Vice Chairman. Above all, the new leader will be anxious to consolidate his power.
In the short term, this could give way to opposition in North Korea capitalizing on the delicate situation. North Korean sympathisers in South Korea have already been spotted floating democratic pamphlets and photos of Muammar Gaddafi’s brutalized corpse over the border with the aid of balloons. Unfortunately, the only foreseeable outcome to any uprising at this time would be a ruthless crackdown from the new establishment. Such an incident would, in fact, give Jong-un the perfect opportunity to establish himself as the absolute leader.
In the longer term, Jong-un’s ascension could have serious economic implications for the country, already described as medieval, with huge disparity between rich and poor. North Korea began with a larger mineral and industrial base than its neighbour to the South. In the 1970s, the North was overtaken by the South and in 2010 South Korea’s GDP was four times larger. In the 1990s, North Korea received a large amount of aid from China and even from the US following the deaths of two million people due to famine. Today, five million people in North Korea are dependent on food aid. Most of these problems stem from constant prioritization of military spending. They also look set to worsen as Jong-un will, in all likelihood, look to strengthen his country’s already considerable military might as a symbol of his authority.
North Korea’s obsession with its military has already caused its army to swell to over one million, making it the fourth largest in the world. Far more pressing than this is the development of nuclear weaponry. Begun in the 1950s, the programme has included two underground test explosions and the construction of a uranium enrichment plant. Today North Korea has anywhere between one and thirteen nuclear weapons. This programme was key to Jong-il’s foreign policy. The nuclear threat forces other countries to be wary of North Korea, allowing it to remain aloof in negotiations and yet still draw aid from other countries. As pressure mounts at home and abroad, however, North Korea’s nuclear weapons could seem to the inexperienced Jong-un more and more intertwined with the nation’s very survival. What was largely a ploy may become all too real a global threat.
There have been inroads made into fostering better relations between North Korea and a range of other nations, including South Korea and the US. On July 1st of this year exploratory talks with the US for proposed disarmament for aid negotiations resumed after a long hiatus. There has also been a certain amount of foreign investment with seventy South Korean businesses setting up shop in North Korea’s Kaesong region. Jong-un’s takeover could mean indefinite disruption to these talks, however. On top of this, as conditions in the country become more precarious, there will be even less foreign investment.
More promising are North Korea’s links with China. Despite inconsistencies between the Socialist ideals of the two countries, China remains North Korea’s only ally. There has been co-operation and trade between the two countries since the Korean War during the 1950s. North Korea, however, has not adopted the same openness to the rest of the world which is transforming China into a leading economic power. How China handles relations with Kim Jong-un will be critical. Peace on the Korean peninsula, to which China, along with the US, is dedicated, would become significantly less likely should Jong-un sever this tie. On the other hand, China may become impatient with North Korea’s frostiness.
Both of these eventualities, thankfully, seem unlikely. For one thing, the impact on the already impoverished North Korea would be catastrophic. China is North Korea’s chief food supplier and provides ninety per cent of its energy. Also, in 2008, North Korea exported 750 million dollars worth of iron ore to China, as it has no other market. On top of this, it is in China’s interests to maintain the North Korean state as it provides a buffer between it and the democratic South. Furthermore, better standards of living in North Korea would stem the influx of North Korean immigrants into China.
Ultimately, when it comes to the future of North Korea, there is always a margin of uncertainty. The problem is that with North Korea, more than anywhere else in the world, there is no real indication of how it will react in the future under its new leader, in spite of the public demonstrations of recent days. The only certainty is that there are turbulent years ahead for the whole Korean peninsula.
