Two years ago, Trinity’s ambition to be a “university for the whole island” had started to falter. Even as applications from Northern Irish students were increasing, the spectre of Brexit loomed large, with the rate of acceptances falling.
Today, things have worsened considerably. For the first time in four years, the number of students from Northern Ireland applying to Trinity has fallen dramatically, while the “confusion, uncertainty and outright game-changing nature of Brexit” warned of two years ago has only worsened.
It’s impossible not to link the decline with the stop-start progress of Brexit and the growing unease about the future of Northern Ireland. Months of arguing over border technology, bartered backstops and the threat of a “no-deal” scenario have done little to inspire confidence in anyone.
While Ireland and the EU have doubled down on the need to sequester Northern Ireland from the worst impacts of the UK’s exit, less than a year out from March 2019 – when Brexit will take effect – young people in Northern Ireland can hardly be blamed for being anxious about crossing the border for their university education when even that boundary itself is up for debate.
This isn’t to say some signs haven’t been positive. The Irish Universities Association was quick to woo the UK with promises not to charge British students international fees. So far, such a commitment has been reciprocated. However, as the topsy-turvy negotiation process continues, this uncertainty has clearly translated to a wariness about applying to Irish universities.
Things now look bleak for Trinity’s “all-island” ambitions. Years of work, promotion and cultivation, including a pioneering feasibility study, had helped turn Trinity into one of the dominant destinations for Northern Irish students outside the UK. Brexit threatens now to disrupt, if not derail, those five years of work.
Brexit will bring Trinity opportunities and UK universities are already extending the hand of friendship to Ireland, as the cost of leaving EU projects and funding programmes becomes clearer. Yet it would be a pyrrhic victory indeed if closer links to England, Scotland and Wales came at the cost of losing Trinity’s ties to Northern Ireland.
