At their recent party conference, Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) leader Mike Nesbitt said that in a united Ireland, unionist politicians could hold the balance of power in the new Dáil. They would certainly be a significant force – of the nearly 3 million votes cast on the island during the 2024 Irish and UK general elections, 11% were for unionist candidates. But how would this impact Irish politics and what role would elected unionists play?
Let’s first examine unionist politics today. The largest party is the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which holds staunchly conservative views on social issues. Nesbitt’s party is on the moderate end of the unionist spectrum, considered centrist to centre-right. Finally, ultra-conservative Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) is the most extreme and smallest of the three main unionist parties with strong links to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. Finally, Alliance is not technically a unionist party – they are officially neutral on the constitutional question – but many more liberally-minded unionists vote for them and their roots are in moderate, non-sectarian unionism.
In a united Ireland, there would be a significantly sized religious and ethnic minority group. This may seem like an obvious point, but it is one that would impact many parts of Irish society, and certainly in politics. Many people think that the reunification of Ireland would lead to the decline and eventual dissolution of unionist parties as they would no longer serve a purpose, given the unlikelyhood of Northern Ireland ever rejoining the UK. While this may happen, it’s also possible that these parties could pivot to minority representation as their raison d’être, particularly the more moderate ones. Many such parties exist across Europe, such as the Swedish People’s Party in Finland and the Bosniak Party in Montenegro. While they may have in the past, neither of these parties currently advocate for unification with their respective states; they merely represent the interests of members of these minority groups in their countries. Both of them have served as part of coalition governments in their respective countries. This inclusive treatment of minority parties is not, however, universal: in some countries they are never considered by any party as potential government partners. Minority parties are politically diverse, occupying spaces across the left-right spectrum.
It’s likely that the DUP and TUV would be excluded from government formation – not only for their constitutional positions, but also their social conservatism. It is difficult to imagine Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael (to say nothing of the more left-wing parties) wanting to form a government with either party, both of which backed Brexit and blocked legalising gay marriage and abortion in Northern Ireland until the UK government overrode them in 2019. This feeling is mutual, both parties having been highly critical of Irish governments currently and historically. In contrast, the UUP would likely be more palatable to mainstream Irish parties and their voters, especially if the shift described above had occurred. The UUP is also comparatively less hostile to parties south of the border; in the same conference speech, Nesbitt praised Taoiseach Micheál Martin for his Shared Island project, for example.
So what might unionist parties advocate for in a united Ireland? While rejoining the UK might be out of the picture, maintaining ties with Britain would certainly be a priority. This could include retaining the right to a British passport and citizenship, staying in the Common Travel Area rather than joining the Europe-wide Schengen Area or even Ireland joining the Commonwealth. Another issue would be protecting Ulster Protestant culture, which could include assurances around parades and marches as well as rights for the Ulster Scots language. Allowing unionist-majority areas more agency through the devolution of powers to local authorities could also become a demand, given the current weakness of county councils in the Republic of Ireland. One issue that may see support across ideological and national divides is reform of the Irish healthcare system to mirror the UK’s single-payer National Health Service (NHS), which even the DUP calls the “jewel in the crown of the Union”.
Another impact of unification would be shifts within current parties south of the border. Over 800,000 Ulster Protestants would be a significant chunk of the electorate and parties would be foolish not to try to appeal to them in a united Ireland where the nationalist-unionist divide might become less important to these voters. Perhaps best placed to capitalise would be People Before Profit and the Greens, who already operate in both jurisdictions and are relatively agnostic on the national question. Of the rest, Fine Gael could have the strongest appeal to unionist voters having traditionally been less republican than their rivals Fianna Fáil and had a higher proportion of Protestant members than other parties, although these days there is very little difference between the two on Irish unity. On the left, Labour could point to their historic all-island organisation and links to the modern trade union movement which is also organised on an all-island basis. As well as unionist voters, they could also appeal to centre-left nationalists who find themselves between the more radical Sinn Féin and the increasingly centrist Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP). The fate of these parties in a united Ireland is unknown – both would likely decline in support in the six counties but to what extent is unclear, with Sinn Féin nevertheless in position to continue as the largest party on the island. While their central objective would have been achieved, they could still campaign for a socialist republic but the SDLP might struggle to carve out a space in a crowded centre ground once the national question is resolved.
The direction that Irish nationalism takes after reunification is achieved is also intriguing. Right now, reunification serves as a focal point for nationalism, channeling nationalist activity to what it largely views as a left-wing, decolonial aim. Without this lightning rod to steer nationalists, it is likely that Irish nationalism would splinter, with no clear goal or ideology guiding it. The ugly, exclusionary side of nationalism could finally rear its head on a mass level in the Irish context, perhaps particularly taking aim at Protestants and ethnic minority groups. Alternatively, a new Irish national identity could emerge that fuses the two traditions of our island, although the level of desire for that on either side remains to be seen.
There is debate over what power-sharing structures, if any, should exist in an Oireachtas representing the entire island. A quota of Dáil seats being reserved for unionist politicians has been suggested but would be unnecessary – the current Proportional Representation through Single Transferable Vote (PR-STV) system would allow constituencies with significant unionist populations to elect such representatives naturally. A quota system could, however, be implemented in the indirectly elected Seanad. In terms of government formation, a number of options are possible. One would be a voluntary coalition as used in the Dáil and most parliaments, where a government can be formed by any collection of parties and independents that have a majority of seats without requirement to include any particular party or grouping. This would make it possible for governments to be formed without having to include unionist parties – such as, for example, Sinn Féin, Fianna Fáil, the SDLP and Labour. An alternative is some form of power-sharing, where all communities are guaranteed representation in government. This system is used for the Northern Ireland Assembly and also in Belgium and could be implemented by mandating that a certain number of ministers are from unionist parties.
