Trinity researchers have found that the number of dying patients who need palliative care will increase by 84 per cent by 2046 – a finding that could have major implications for the country’s health services.
The findings, unearthed by The Irish Longitudinal study on Ageing (TILDA) – a research centre based in Trinity – show Ireland’s 84 per cent increase is significantly higher than the estimated 43 per cent increase in England and Wales over a similar period.
The researchers involved say their study shows the “urgent need” to invest in palliative care. Its lead author, Dr Peter May – an assistant professor in health economics in Trinity – said in a press statement that healthcare provision “has to change” to reflect the need for more palliative care.
“Population ageing means not only more people dying with serious medical conditions but many more people living with them also”, he said.
“We need better anticipatory and supportive care to lower avoidable hospital admissions and keep people living at home and in their communities for as long as possible.”
Palliative care is a type of specialist supportive care that aims to improve quality of life for people living and dying with serious illness. It is provided in Ireland in hospitals, by homecare teams and at inpatient hospices.
The Trinity researchers estimated how many people will die from a serious disease such as cancer, heart disease, organ failure and dementia by 2046.
The proportion of people requiring palliative care is accompanied also by an increase in the proportion of people with a high healthcare burden even before they develop the need for palliative services.
Prof Karen Ryan, a clinical professor in University College Dublin’s School of Medicine, said in a press statement that the results highlight the “urgent need” to address funding and workforce in palliative care.
“Ireland is recognised to have a high standard of palliative care provision”, she said. Our data show that capacity must increase significantly if we are to maintain that.”
She added: “People are living longer with more serious illnesses. This is a success story for society but also brings challenges.”
The study also found that the number of people living with a serious disease outnumbers the number of people in the last year of life by about 12:1.
