Conor Murphy
Staff Writer
The current leader in mind share in the technological world is indisputably Apple (though its actual lead is small, if it exists at all). This is a company whose fortunes straddled the shoulders of a technological titan for nearly three decades. Now that he’s gone there is a real nervous energy around the world about whether it can continue it previous form.
To attribute this to the passing of Jobs is to drink from the cool-aid that said someone who was a brilliant salesman and decent manager was anything more. He never designed a paperclip and his real vacuum will be the energy he created around each release.
However this is a critical time for all three big companies (Google, Microsoft and Apple). Remember all these companies have a fully fleshed-out suite of products (at least announced) so it is what they do with their current crop of products that will define their next five years in the business.
This might appear to be wide of the mark, since obvious gaps appear in comparison: Microsoft doesn’t have a tablet, Google doesn’t have a desktop and Apple doesn’t have useful TV software (this will be very important in years to come). However you will notice the convergence as we move through these companies. Where years ago there were several form factors, they’re melding now into transformable products that just get bigger and little else changes about how they work.
Originally the successful companies were built on the foundations of legacy and loyalty towards their existing consumer base, which led to the Gates era stagnation, products built out of the Frankensteinian aesthetics (who still loves the start menu?) and a global domination of business because that’s where the money was. Then Apple, Android and the advent of cheap software engendered a willingness in people to invest their time, money and emotional weight into platforms. The challenge now is in showing that there is a continuing cash crop in these products, not just in the original sale.
Apple has a grim few years ahead of it. Google has a meteorically high fifty-two percent share of the American marketplace, which is still climbing, compared to a stagnant twenty nine percent from Apple. Its phone share has stopped growing whilst it is, at the same time, capitalising fully in all its potential markets. You will never see iPhones in Africa, China or Iraq in any big way. However you can see Android there already (lead by Samsung and LG) and Microsoft have just launched a few great phones with Nokia that will help penetrate Third World markets with middle cost phones boasting high end power. iPhone has gone nowhere in the last year and there is no reason to think it will increase market share without some cheaper options (last year’s model does not cut it) or a big re-design.
The only real hardware market Apple leads in is Tablets. It has a commanding lead in this market. However, this is a young market, full of idiosyncrasies and no real competitor. Android will by Christmas have a full range of cheaper and more powerful alternatives – expect them to penetrate deeply into the market. It will not eat Apples numbers but will be successful by expanding into those markets that could never afford or even consider the purchase of an IPad.
The real dark horse here is Microsoft. They are launching the next Windows at the end of next year. Windows 8 is the single most disruptive technology that has come out in nearly twenty years from Microsoft. Everything is a tablet now. It is really easy to use and has full productivity power so it will enter the business world in a way Apple never could with its painfully reserved design in IOS.
iOS is a UI not meant for the tablet world, it is a lazy effort in need of radical redesign. Use a new android tablet and there is no comparison in the power of the software. This inherent power will allow Android tablets to become de-facto desktop software in the next year. iPad is likely to be a small minority by 2013 unless a radical re-design arrives.
However the final frontier for these companies to cross is one that is accessible to all: The Television. Apple is most likely prepping a product for next year to penetrate the home entertainment market – an Apple TV that’s not just a fan-boy product. However Google is already on its second iteration of its software. It’s implemented into TV’s at the manufacturer before it goes out of the factory and all it needs is an international ad campaign and market penetration to wipe-out Apple in this field before they have even launched.
Microsoft here has a medium-offering which I think it will work on to fashion a broader appeal. The Xbox already has video on demand, Sky player and Netflix; and this will be world wide soon – it is already my TV-aid as much as the UPC box is. Coupled with a Minority-Report-style Kinect this could lead to very cool offering in the home.
Apple will always have a special place in consumers’ hearts. However it’s becoming likely that the other two will have that even more special place in peoples’ homes, pockets and in their place of work. Unless Apple can reinvent themselves almost to the extent that they did in the nineties, they are doomed to a peripheral role with all of the fame and a fraction of the sales.
