By Declan Harmon, University Times columnist
The nightmare for Fianna Fáil in this election is not going into opposition, the party long ago reconciled itself to that reality (although it will still be a shock to the system when it happens).
Nor is the nightmare losing more talented, and particularly younger, deputies to the ‘old dogs for the hard road’, constituency fixer types – retirements, resignations and Micheál Martin’s frontbench appointments have minimised the risks in this area, although undoubtedly it will still be a concern.
No, the real nightmare is far more fundamental – irrelevancy. With the ‘Gilmore Gale’ looking to be turning more into a breeze, the possibility is emerging that Fine Gael, almost in spite of itself, could get enough seats to govern as a single party minority government. Admittedly, it is unlikely. However, if Fine Gael were to enjoy a good ‘seat-bounce’ (‘seat bounce’ is where, through good transfers, a party can gain a disproportionate share of seats to votes) one can see the potential for them to be able to govern with the support of independent TDs.
This would likely kill Fianna Fáil off altogether. With Labour leading the opposition, Fianna Fáil’s space in the market would be totally squeezed – it’s right of centre supporters would float to Fine Gael and it’s leftist supporters would flock to Labour. Fianna Fáil would end up unwanted, ignored and totally incapable of rebuilding.
As the general election enters its third week, Gilmore for Taoiseach is the punch line of jokes rather than a serious political prospect. Fianna Fáil doesn’t need to spend the rest of the campaign putting the boot into Labour, as it has done for the past week. Don’t be surprised if you see the FF guns turning on Fine Gael. It wouldn’t be the first time.
