Laura Gozzi
Resident Erasmus Blogger
Yesterday I went to the latest protest against Putin thus far in Russia, simultaneously his re-election as President.
The official outcome of the presidential elections were announced last Sunday, yet the result has been known by the general public long in advance; despite his emotional speech declaring that the vote had been “fair” and “clean”, I don’t think there are many people in Russia – whether pro-Putin or not – who actually believe that the elections have been just.
So Putin has been President for a week now – the first seven days of yet another six year job at the Kremlin – and there have been two major protests since: one on the day after the elections on Pushkin square, where several opposition leaders were arrested, and the other just yesterday, on one of Moscow’s main arteries, the Novy Arbat. Both demonstrations were radically different in character to the first big one I had gone to, back in December, after the equally shamelessly rigged parliamentary elections. Back then, there had been a hopeful, almost cheerful atmosphere of anticipation – “the people are going to change Russia, we are more powerful than the Kremlin “ – and the protest on Bolotnaya Square had been despite its large numbers peaceful and, by all means, a success. It had shown how many people were taking a stand against an incredibly authoritarian and corrupt government.
This week’s protests had little or nothing in common with that early joyful, white ribbon-waving crowd. There were less people, for a start; few families with children and few groups of teenagers. The speakers were using stronger, tougher words, seemingly to flare up the crowds whose interest in protesting against the faceless repressive machine that is the Kremlin is weaving. Both times at the protests, this week, I have been struck by everyone’s punctuality when it came to leaving the sites of the protests – yesterday’s demonstration had been sanctioned from 1pm to 4pm, and by ten past four the Arbat was completely empty, with a few people still walking around holding their ribbons and others rolling up their banners. While this can be blamed explained by the presence of thousands of terrifying policemen (central Moscow looked and felt like a war zone), I still can’t help but feel that the enthusiasm and the hope I had felt in the early days of December simply isn’t there anymore.
No further demonstrations have been announced yet, and in any case, the question that has been put forward by foreign newspapers – but not yet Russian ones – is the stereotypical “elephant in the room”. Even if fresh waves of protests are organised, are people still going to turn up? Can they stand any more of the cold and the police and, above all, the silence on Putin’s part, who neither denounces the protests nor seems to even take them seriously? The upsetting thing is that one really feels that, despite the speeches and the banners and the people telling each other that they are part of “a great peaceful movement that will change the country”, unless someone decides to do something to force the Kremlin to react, nothing at all will change. This either means some kind of resistance, or the consolidation of the opposition into a political party that could represent a real threat to the political stability of the country.
The first option – resistance – is often, and not too subtly, encouraged by the organisers of the demonstrations, who regularly hint that another form of protest might be necessary, and that “they won’t back down”. However, even if the people opt for some kind of mass resistance, whether peaceful or violent, it’ll be all too easy for the Kremlin to swiftly crush any small opposition group. Any action would therefore have to be taken by the masses so that the whole world would pay attention. The government would not be able to use its forceful methods against thousands of people, and then maybe something would change. It is very unlikely that Putin will decide to ignore international opinion and order a major crackdown on the opposition, as such a crack-down would more than likely turn to a bloody mess of violence and arrests, only contributing to further opposition.
The second option is that the opposition potentially organise itself in a political party that could grow to gain enough support to oppose Putin’s rule. Although this could be the most effective solution in the long term, it would take time and, above all, co-operation amongst the oppositional forces. The opposition has to find a common ground first, which would not be easy considering the variety of people that turn up to the protests – from nationalists to Communists to the liberal supporters of the Yabloko party. A single anti-Kremlin stance would involve a lot of negotiating and compromising before everyone could be satisfied.
So, what next? Although it’s difficult for me to admit it, as I’ve been following the protests closely since the start with a sense of amazement and admiration, unless extreme actions on either side are taken, the opposition movement will probably slowly die down. The leaders have to start organising themselves and their supporters into concrete political forces, to represent a real alternative to Putin. This will take time, but hopefully it will be a more effective, lasting solution to the current political stagnation of the country. There is so much potential for reform in Russia, someone just needs to take the movement from the streets to the offices, to gather support from all those people who want a change but don’t know where to start from, and to finally give Russians an alternative to the man who has been ruling them for over ten years. What is sure is that the country’s political awakening has only just started, and if, handled properly, this could truly mean a new beginning for Russia.
