Students have spoken, with almost 450 responses to the University Times annual TCDSU Sabbatical election poll.
As candidates make their final push for the upcoming election on February 25th to 27th, the poll offers a glimpse of where student opinion stands ahead of what looks set to be a competitive election season across several races.
This year’s poll was conducted under a newly developed privacy policy to ensure the protection of student data.
Respondents were drawn from across the College, with 62 per cent from the Faculty of Arts, Humanities, and Social Sciences (AHSS), 30 per cent from STEM, and 8 per cent from the Faculty of Health Sciences, broadly reflecting the makeup of the student body.
Presidential Race
The presidential race was the most popular election, with over 88 per cent of respondents reporting that they planned to vote, out of 437 valid responses. This is a highly-contested election, with five candidates vying for the position.
Incumbent TCDSU president Grace McNally trailed Amy Kennedy in first-choice votes by over 10 per cent, but had a strong showing in second choice votes. RON does not appear to be a significant factor this year.
A simulated election based on the opinion poll predicts that the election would go to five rounds, with the final two candidates being Kennedy and McNally. However, the results are too close to call and there could be some surprises on election night.
Education Officer Race
With only two candidates in the running, Eve Martin looks set to win the election, receiving 58.1 per cent of first-choice votes from 298 respondents. Sam Brooks received 38.3 per cent of the vote. Based on this poll, Martin will likely be elected to office in the second round once RON is eliminated.
Welfare and Equality Officer Race
Welfare and Equality was the second most popular election, with 78 per cent of respondents reporting that they planned to vote in this election.
Previous presidential hopeful Lorenzo Cheasty is the clear favourite with 57 per cent of first-choice votes. Rossa Bolger took a respectable 38 per cent of first-choice votes, with RON being a non-factor.
In a simulated election, we predict that Cheasty will be elected on the first count.
Communications and Marketing Officer Race
Communications and Marketing is another highly contested election, with four candidates in the running. Responses show that over 76 per cent of respondents intend to vote in this election.
Matthew Kurt received the highest percentage of first-choice votes with 49 per cent.
RON received a significant percentage of fourth-choice votes; respondents tended to select RON as their fourth choice over Jacob Barron, who has proved a controversial candidate.
Based on this poll, we believe that Kurt will likely emerge victorious in the third count, following the elimination of RON and Barron. However, it is important to note that due to the number of candidates it is difficult to determine a winner.
Entertainments (Ents) Officer Race
The Ents race has come off a hotly-contested race last year with just two candidates in this year’s running. Previous Ents contender Finn Hallwood received the most first-choice votes with 54 per cent. Based on the poll, it seems likely that Hallwood will be elected on the first count.
Oifigeach na Gaeilge Race
Oifigeach na Gaeilge had a relatively lower percentage of respondents planning to vote, at only 66 per cent. Nearly one in five respondents reported that they do not plan to vote in this election.
Of those planning to vote, Mary Kate Ní Artáin emerged as the clear favourite, with 63 per cent of first-choice votes. Hugh Ó Ríordáin received 36.6 per cent of the votes. It looks likely that the election will run for one count, with Ní Artáin securing the office. However, the large number of undecided voters could yet swing the election.
Graduate Officer Race
Only 49 per cent of respondents planned to vote for this newly-added position, with a further 25 per cent unsure whether they would participate.
Ava Tuohy emerged the favourite among those planning to vote, receiving 67 per cent of first-choice votes. Féith Ní Chléirigh received 25 per cent of first-choice votes. RON received minimal votes. Based on this poll. Tuohy is predicted to win the election by a comfortable margin on the first count.
University Times Editor
Only one candidate, Harper Alderson, is in the running for the University Times Editor. The current Deputy Editor of the University Times secured 88 per cent of first-choice votes from 319 respondents. This election will likely run for just one round, with Alderson being elected as the University Times Editor.
The Issues Driving Students to the Polls
The biggest issue for students was academic, social or health resources at 38 per cent. Respondents mentioned accessibility, mental health resources, anti-sexual assault campaigns and gender-affirming healthcare. Housing followed closely behind at 29 per cent, and Student Union internal issues at 17 per cent. Tuition and cost of living sat at 14 per cent, with respondents mentioning in particular price of food on campus, placement payments and international tuition costs.
The National Context
We asked students which Irish political party they most closely identified with. Social Democrats polled highest at 31 per cent, leading by a considerable margin over the next most popular party, PBP–Solidarity.
Sinn Féin received 7 per cent of the vote share. Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and Labour each received 5 per cent. Independent candidates and small and local parties write-ins received a combined 1 per cent. Aontú received less than 1 per cent.
27 per cent of students identified themselves as unsure or non-political.
Conclusion
With polling fast approaching, this year’s opinion poll suggests a competitive race across many elections. While opinion polls are not a guarantee of outcome, it points to a highly-engaged student body heading into what could be a significant election for TCDSU. The University Times will have full coverage of the results as they come in.
