Beginning in 2014, the Russo-Ukrainian conflict escalated into a full-scale war on February 24th 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. With hundreds of thousands of military and civilian casualties combined, this war is currently the deadliest single conflict in Europe since the Second World War. With eight million Ukrainians internally displaced, and roughly seven million having fled the country, Europe is now facing the largest refugee crisis since the Second World War.
Members of the European Union, as well as many other countries, have stepped up to help. Under the Temporary Protection Directive, activated by the European Council on March 4th 2022 to provide immediate protection in EU countries for people displaced by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Ireland has acted as a safe haven for those in search of refuge. As the Central Statistics Office (CSO) notes, an estimated 80,031 Ukrainian refugees currently reside in Ireland, and of that number approximately 1,255 attended Irish universities during the 2024/25 academic year.
Being able to attend university during such an uncertain time allows these students structure, support, and community, as well as the opportunity to further their studies and continue with their higher education without threat of violence or harm. However, with peace negotiations underway, there is a question as to what a potential ceasefire would mean for those students who are on refugee visas.
While the Temporary Protection Directive has always been an emergency solution with the ultimate goal of helping Ukrainians safely return to their homes, a ceasefire in itself may not qualify for the early termination of the Directive. Despite the TPD’s deadline coming up next year, the European Commission is in talks of a gradual shift to national permits (such as studying, working, etc) for Ukrainian refugees who are not prepared to return to their home, as safe conditions for return are necessary in themselves. While a ceasefire would be a step towards a safer day-to-day, Russia’s history of defying the numerous ceasefires during the Donbas War does not lend itself towards confidence in the sanctity of a ceasefire pact alone. In order to end the Temporary Protection Directive before the deadline, the European Commission would need confidence in the state of Ukraine – safe conditions would need to be confirmed for the wellbeing of refugees under the European Union’s care before any agreement for termination of the Directive could be reached.
With a ceasefire in itself unlikely to be enough to provide safe conditions in Ukraine, eyes have turned to the peace negotiations actively underway. While this is not the first time peace negotiations have been on the table for the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, there are signs of progress in the global involvement of the American and European officials. Peace negotiations for the Russo-Ukrainian War have been ongoing since 2014, and between the beginning of the war to 2022 there were twenty-nine ceasefires which each side agreed to remain enforced indefinitely. However, none of them lasted more than two weeks. Given the history at hand, the deep seated distrust between Russia and Ukraine lends itself to being unlikely that peace negotiations will be fruitful in the coming months.
The primary demands of Russia in these ongoing peace negotiations target territory, sanctions, and limited Ukrainian-Western mobility. Putin wants Ukrainian territory that Russia has illegally annexed and occupies (such as the entire eastern region of Donbas and Crimea) as well as territory that Russia does not control fully, like Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. In addition to these territories, Putin seeks for all sanctions against Russia to be lifted, as well as wanting Ukraine to end plans of joining NATO to limit Western influence and power in the region and cut off Ukraine from Western support. Alongside these demands, Putin is asking for demilitarization in Ukraine, wanting to limit the Ukrainian military to 85,000 troops in earlier peace talks (comparatively, Russia totals over 3.5 million military personnel) and change Ukraine’s official language to Russian. Conversely, Ukraine’s primary demands in current peace talks emphasize territorial integrity – wanting Ukrainian territory to be restored to the pre-war borders, and complete withdrawal of Russian military, as well as war reparations, prosecution for war crimes, and the return of Ukrainian prisoners and children. In addition, in order to prevent future attacks from Russia, Ukraine needs concrete legal security guarantees, such as an induction to NATO and allyship with the USA and EU.
On December 23rd and 24th 2025, Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy published a twenty-point plan that would be accompanied by a Ukraine-US-EU security guarantee, as well as a Ukraine-US economic agreement. If this proposal is accepted by Russian authorities, a ceasefire would be expected in the near future. However, Russian officials, especially Putin, have not engaged with any of the peace summits led by US or EU officials and have continued with aggressive attacks on Ukraine. Some global critics have argued that Russia is likely dragging the peace talks on purpose in order to continue illegally occupying more Ukrainian territory, making a ceasefire unlikely in the coming months.
Even if a peace agreement were to be reached, the general sentiment seems to be that it would not last. “Most people in Ukraine are not optimistic about any peace deal. There has never been any semblance of peace without Russian persecution and oppression,” Dr Katja Kolcio, who has partnered with the Ukrainian NGO’s Development Foundation and Volyn National University, states. “There is no reason to believe that Russia will actually abide by any international agreement.”
So what does this mean for Ireland’s refugee students? With a ceasefire in itself unlikely to be enough to prove safe conditions, especially given past proof of Russia’s tendency to break ceasefire agreements, the Temporary Protection Directive will likely continue on until its deadline: March 4th 2027. As the deadline approaches, the European Council has emphasized that they will be making a switch to national permits for Ukrainian refugees, such as working permits or studying visas, enabling them to stay in the country until Ukraine is safe for them to return home. This switch to other legal statuses would allow these students to continue with their studies and degree programs on student visas, allowing for a more certain and stable immediate future while the war goes on.
