Aidan Gerard O’Neill
Contributing Writer
Barring some cataclysmic, world-changing news event, the US presidential election will be the biggest news story this autumn. In many ways, it is the world’s election – every country follows the ups and downs, the trials and tribulations of the presidential race. And thanks to the non-stop media coverage, we hold no misconceptions as to each candidate policies. In fact the only real misconceptions in this election regard how the election will take place.
When an American citizen looks at their ballot paper on Election Day, they will see in bold type ‘Barack Obama’ and ‘Mitt Romney’, tick their preference and have exercised their democratic right. Except it’s not quite as simple as that. First the Electoral College gets involved.
This Electoral College consists of 538 electors across the country. Each elector is responsible for a district within a state, selected at that states discretion. When voters cast their ballots, really they’re telling their elector which candidate they prefer. After the votes have been cast and tallied, the onus is on the elector to accurately report his or her states preference for President when the Electoral College votes (though the institution never actually meets). The candidate with 270 votes becomes the next Commander-in-Chief.
But, quite astonishingly, this President elect with 270 Electoral College votes may not have won the general election. The runner up can plausibly win more popular votes – as was the case 1876, 1888 and 2000, when George W. Bush took on Al Gore. Gore, the sitting Vice President, won the popular vote by 500,000 votes but lost the Electoral College 271 to 266. Because he failed to carry enough states, Bush took up residence in the White House.
Map of US Electoral Colleges
Looking to another quirk of the system, consider that in 1992 Independent candidate Ross Perot won 19% of the popular vote, but failed to win a single vote from an elector. One in five cast their vote for him, but having failed to win any states outright, Perot was coolly rebuffed in the College.
This highlights the importance of carrying the most states, rather than winning the most votes outright. Hence the focus on taking those all important ‘swing-states’. They are why Obama took the Presidency in 2008 with 365 Electoral College votes, despite only 53% of the electorate putting a tick beside his name.
The Electoral College system America employs all but guarantees that the swing states will decide the US President. That is, until either the polarization in US politics reverses or the Electoral College system is reformed. Considering each tradition is centuries old, it looks like those battleground states better get used to plenty of private planes and secret service details every four years.
