With Labour continuing to underperform in the polls, strategists in Labour HQ must be sitting around amidst piles of ‘Gilmore for Taoiseach’ posters wondering where it all went wrong.
I suspect part of the answer can be found in our recent electoral history.
In 1997, Fine Gael and Labour (and, at the time, Democratic Left) campaigned on their economic competence and record of working together in the Rainbow Government. Fianna Fáil promised tax cuts. Fianna Fáil won.
In 2002, Fine Gael campaigned on healthcare and Labour focused on public services generally. Fianna Fáil promised tax cuts. Fianna Fáil won.
In 2007, Fine Gael and Labour finally cottoned on to the fact that people liked tax cuts. Fianna Fáil nearly ran a campaign based on fiscal restraint. But, as Pat Leahy has documented in his book Showtime, Bertie Ahern decided at the last minute to go with tax cuts. Fianna Fáil won.
In the run up to this election, there was much talk that the way in which the public viewed political debate had changed and that people had moved away from the low-tax orthodoxy of the last 15 years.
Labour decided to base their economic plan on fewer cuts to services and more taxes, particularly higher personal taxes. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are proposing more cuts but a lighter burden in terms of tax increases. Fine Gael, in particular, have ruled out increasing personal taxation. The result: Fine Gael have gone up during the campaign, Labour have gone down.
The lesson is very simple: Irish people like low taxes. There is nothing wrong with that, per se, so long as people realise that low taxes mean lower levels of public services. The electorate have consistently rewarded parties that have promised the greatest cuts in personal taxes. While tax cuts are not on the agenda in this election, it appears that the voters are taking tax rises off the agenda too. That is damaging Labour and their miscalculation on this issue may gift Fine Gael a single party government.
Declan Harmon
