My predictions for the Fine Gael / Labour cabinet. I stress that this is not what I would like to see, but what I expect to see. I have added comments after some choices, some don’t require explanation. I have assumed that Fine Gael will take nine cabinet places and Labour six. I have also assumed that the usual cabinet selection considerations – gender, geography, genealogy and generation – will apply.
Taoiseach:
Enda Kenny TD
Wouldn’t be my choice, but I genuinely hope he grows into the role because the country needs him to do well.
Tánaiste and Minister for Environment, Heritage and Local Government:
Eamon Gilmore TD
Gilmore would be well advised to take a mid-ranking cabinet portfolio that doesn’t require much foreign travel so that he has spare time to keep an eye on the rest of the coalition. The main difficulty with him taking on Environment would be that he would have to deal with the Ringsend incinerator issue, which his TDs in Dublin South East have campaigned vigorously against.
Minister for Finance:
Michael Noonan TD
I can’t see this portfolio going to the Labour Party at this stage and Noonan, the Lazarus of Irish politics, is the obvious choice from the Fine Gael benches.
Minister for Health and Children:
James Reilly TD
I have my concerns about James ‘The Angry Beard’ Reilly in this role, given that he is the definition of ‘vested interest’, having previously been head of the Irish Medical Organisation. However, Fine Gael have a very well defined policy on health, which is quite compatible with Labour’s policy. Labour will also be happy for Fine Gael to take some of the big spending portfolios so that it is not only Labour ministers in the firing line come budget time.
Minister for Economic Planning and Public Service Reform:
Richard Bruton TD
It is hard to see Enda keeping Bruton out of cabinet. In order to create this department, which mirrors Bruton’s opposition frontbench portfolio, I would expect the Department of Tourism, Culture and Sport to be broken up and its functions reassigned to existing departments. It is possible that the public service reform element might be vetoed by Labour, or they could insist on a Labour junior minister being appointed to keep an eye on things. The economic planning element won’t please either Michael Noonan or the Department of Finance, who will see it as a threat to their influence and control.
Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Innovation:
Joan Burton TD
Labour will have to be given a senior economic post and Joan Burton will expect one, even if Labour strategists would prefer if she got a less important portfolio.
Minister for Foreign Affairs:
Ruairi Quinn TD
One of the most coveted roles in cabinet, Ruairi Quinn is ideally suited to it. It is a promotion from his opposition frontbench role and it means Labour can keep an eye on Enda and Noonan in negotiations with the EU.
Minister for Education and Skills:
Frances Fitzgerald TD
Fine Gael need women and Dublin TDs in government. Frances Fitzgerald ticks both boxes, as well as having been a strong supporter of Enda during the heave.
Minister for Social Protection:
Róisín Shorthall TD
She probably would have been left out under other circumstances but she brought in a running mate in Dublin North West so this will be her reward.
Minister for Defence:
Frank Feighan TD
A suitably mediocre portfolio for a suitably mediocre politician.
Minister for Community, Equality and Gaeltacht Affairs:
Fergus O’Dowd TD
A bit of a sideways move, perhaps even a demotion, from his opposition portfolio of Education. However, Fine Gael isn’t dripping with Gaeilgeoirí and they will need to repair relations with the Irish language lobby after the election campaign.
Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food:
Seán Sherlock TD
Minister for Justice and Law Reform:
Pat Rabbitte TD
Minister for Communications, Energy and Natural Resources:
Leo Varadkar TD
Enda can’t leave Leo out, mainly because he would be worried about what the Dublin West deputy was plotting from the backbenches. With Labour in government, they will ensure that Leo doesn’t get to sell of Bord Gáis and the ESB.
Minister for Transport:
Simon Coveney TD
Chief Whip:
Phil Hogan TD
It would make a lot of sense for Taoiseach Enda to have his chief lieutenant at his side in Government Buildings. It is also mildly reassuring that Phil will be around to make sure Enda doesn’t do anything too stupid in the Department of the Taoiseach.
Attorney General:
Alan Shatter TD
He’s not really qualified for the job, but he talks a good game, Enda will be hard placed to leave him out of cabinet and he will be in his element with the job. Also gives Fine Gael someone to speak on their traditional ‘law and order’ issues with Labour occupying the Justice portfolio.
Minister for European Affairs:
Senator Pat Cox
He is advising Fine Gael on government transition and he is both well known and well respected in Brussels and EU capitals. It would damage Enda’s argument about the Seanad being useless, though.
The marginal calls:
Sean Barrett – Currently FG spokesperson on Foreign Affairs, he delivered two seats in Dún Laoghaire. However, I would expect him to be elevated to the Ceann Comhairle’s chair.
Michael Ring – Enda’s constituency ‘colleague’ will be pushing hard for a cabinet position. If Phil Hogan is made a full cabinet minister, Ring would be a good, if perhaps unorthodox, choice for whip – it would guarantee his loyalty and he is popular with his colleagues.
Billy Timmins – Helped FG deliver three out of five seats in Wicklow. An outside possibility for a low ranking cabinet portfolio like Defence (he is himself a former soldier).
Brendan Howlin – A member of Labour’s coalition negotiating team, Gilmore may find it hard to keep him out of cabinet.
