When Jim Gavin withdrew from the 2025 Irish presidential election on October 6th, it solidified that Fianna Fáil’s first presidential campaign in decades was an embarrassment for the party. The campaign that Fianna Fáil thought would be uncontroversial, given that Gavin was a new entrant to Irish politics, resulted in disaster. For Taoiseach and Leader of Fianna Fáil Micheál Martin, this campaign has also been a personal disaster, given the embarrassment for the party that has resulted from the candidate which he hand picked. Since the end of Gavin’s campaign, Martin has apologised to party colleagues, saying “how deeply sorry I am, about how things turned out”. Given the disaster of this campaign, it raises questions regarding Martin’s leadership of Fianna Fáil, and whether this could be the beginning of the end for him.
The nomination process for this election within Fianna Fáil itself was also controversial, with Jim Gavin beating out Member of the European Parliament Billy Kelleher in a vote of the parliamentary party with 41 votes compared to Kelleher’s 29. Gavin was Martin’s candidate of choice for the election, and there are reports that he put pressure on his Fianna Fáil colleagues to back Gavin over Kelleher. For example, Pat Gallagher TD said that the nomination process “was democratic, but it was a contrived majority”. The close result has been suggested to show unhappiness with Martin’s leadership, and Fianna Fáil TDs have expressed concern with the pick, for example, one anonymous TD said to POLITICO that “we barely know what his political views are — or if he even has any”.
Gavin’s campaign was full of controversies from the start, ranging from what has now been dubbed by some as “gate-gate”, in which Gavin recorded a campaign video with multiple gaffes, such as him leaving the gate open on a farm. There also was an incident in which the campaign used a drone to record a campaign video without proper approval, which attracted controversy especially given Gavin’s former position as the Chief Operating Officer of the Irish Aviation Authority. Additionally, there was controversy surrounding him taking photos for his campaign with soldiers in the Irish Defence Forces, Óglaigh na hÉireann, which were quickly taken down.
However, the most controversial part of the campaign, and the incident which caused Gavin to withdraw was the news that he owed €3,300 to a former tenant. This tenant, now known to be Deputy Editor of the Sunday World Niall Donald, accidentally overpaid Gavin €3,300 after he moved out of an apartment Gavin was renting out, and Donald never received the money back after contacting Gavin multiple times asking for it to be repaid, escalating to letters from solicitors being sent to Gavin on behalf of Donald. This ultimately led to Gavin withdrawing from the election campaign on October 6th in a statement where he said “I made a mistake that was not in keeping with my character and the standards I set myself. I am now taking steps to address the matter”.
The fallout of Gavin’s withdrawal from the campaign has been centred on Micheál Martin, and to a lesser extent, Minister for Public Expenditure and Deputy Leader of Fianna Fáil Jack Chambers TD, who served as the Fianna Fáil Director of Elections for Gavin’s presidential campaign. However, neither Martin or Chambers have indicated that they will resign, with Martin stating that he is “as hungry as ever”. Both have apologised for how the campaign went, with Chambers saying that “I deeply regret and I am sorry for what’s after happening. I always do my best in every role I am given for the party and put the party interest first in the work that I do”, and Martin talked about “how deeply sorry I am, about how things turned out”. There has been backlash about the campaign from multiple people within the party, for example, Padraig O’Sullivan said that “The disappointment is still there. The frustration amongst the grassroots, you know, it’s heartfelt, the embarrassment that’s there, is heartfelt”, and Councilor Michael Regan called Martin a “dictator”. Multiple other TDs have also spoken anonymously about the campaign, ranging from saying the campaign was “a laughing stock” to “mortifying”.
Minister for Justice Jim O’Callaghan TD said that he is “very pleased with the leadership of Micheál Martin”, O’Callaghan has been seen by many as a potential candidate for the next party leader, which he has said that he is interested in. However, he strayed away from directly criticising Martin over the campaign. While calls for Martin’s resignation are not widespread among Fianna Fáil, it is fair to suggest that questions surrounding Martin’s leadership have been raised because of the failure of the presidential campaign, and this could spell the beginning of the end for Martin’s leadership. That is to say, if there was going to be a challenge to Martin’s leadership in the future, it would be strengthened by the recent events that have unfolded.
Although Gavin has suspended his campaign, his name will remain on the ballot. With that being said, it is clearly a two horse race between the other two candidates, Catherine Connolly and Heather Humphreys. A recent poll published in The Irish Times, which was conducted by Ipsos B&A showed that, when undecided voters are excluded, Connolly is polling at 60.3 per cent, Humphreys is polling at 31.7 per cent, and Gavin is only polling at 7.9 per cent. The poll also reported on party support, with Fianna Fáil polling at 17 per cent, a five per cent drop when compared to the last Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll in July 2025. Similarly, the poll showed that Martin’s approval rating is at 33 per cent, representing an 11 per cent drop from July 2025. Will the memory of this campaign quietly fade away, or will it continue to hurt Martin? We will see. Only time will tell whether the fiasco surrounding Jim Gavin’s presidential campaign will result in the end of Micheál Martin’s leadership of Fianna Fáil, but if anything is clear from this, it’s that this campaign has hurt Martin, and raised questions around his leadership.
