In this presidential election season, the machinery of the establishment is seeking its latest Trojan horse: Jim Gavin, the former Dublin GAA manager now docked as the Fianna Fáil presidential hopeful. The narrative is already being cast: a man of the people, rooted in sport, above politics. However, I believe this is a slick instrument for reengineering Irish neutrality.
Step 1: Recruit the Charismatic Everyman
Jim Gavin brings to this race something few conventional candidates can boast: massive name recognition across the GAA heartland, trust among sports fans, and a perception of integrity earned on the field. Fianna Fáil has baited the hook: “an active presidency,” “bringing people together,” “service above self.” Gavin describes himself as a “centrist” and “constitutional Republican”. Sure, he’s president material!
Step 2: Silence the Politics, Amplify the Symbol
Presidents are expected to reflect and respect the will of the people as expressed in many ways, such as through referendums. This is why presidential candidates are often asked about their positions on past votes, as a way of gauging whether they truly embody the democratic consensus. Yet when Jim Gavin was first asked about such issues, he was quickly interrupted by Taoiseach Micheál Martin, controlling the narrative around his candidacy.
Gavin’s campaign so far has emphasised sport, community, and togetherness, while deftly sidestepping controversial policy beliefs. His biography from Air Corps cadet to commandant and legendary GAA status are highlighted, but his political positions – especially those concerning neutrality – are downplayed or framed in vague academic terms.
It’s a telling move, given the party’s own history: Fianna Fáil barely campaigned in favour of marriage equality in 2015, and internal factions opposed the Repeal the 8th referendum in 2018. Today, however, both outcomes are recognised as settled expressions of the people’s will, and any president must stand firmly by them to win and to credibly represent the Irish nation. Gavin’s reluctance to voice clear positions, combined with Fianna Fáil’s selective history of referendum engagement, is being purposefully overshadowed with the upselling of Gavin’s resumé.
Step 3: Reframe Neutrality as Threatened Sovereignty
The core of the new anti-triple-lock agenda is to recast Irish neutrality as something under siege: we have “lost sovereignty” as Minister Jennifer Carroll MacNeill argued in her Béal na Bláth speech in August. In doing so, the campaign sets the stage for dismantling the legal constraints on military deployment. Gavin also openly declared his support for scrapping the triple lock – legislation brought in by the government in 2001, in response to the people’s initial rejection of the Nice Treaty, forthrightly due to fears that the EU agreement would weaken our neutrality.
Step 4: Exploit Disinformation & Forgo the Polls
The latest Irish Times/Ipsos B&A opinion poll recorded that 63% “support Ireland’s current model of military neutrality”. Separately, respondents were told: “The triple lock currently in place means that the United Nations must approve any peacekeeping mission that Irish troops may be sent on. This means that countries such as Russia can block any such mission. The Government intends to change the triple lock so that Irish troops can be sent on peacekeeping missions without UN approval.” They were asked “do you think the Government should keep or remove the triple lock?” To this, only 37 per cent said it should be removed.
Additionally, the wording of this poll is incredibly disingenuous! UN approval can be passed in both the UN Security Council and General Assembly, where Russia, USA, UK, France and China don’t have the power of veto. The destruction of the triple lock isn’t only unsupported by the Irish people, but blatantly misrepresented by politicians and mainstream media.
Another recent poll conducted by Uplift/Ireland Thinks found that 75 per cent of people wished to maintain neutrality as is. It’s clear to me that the campaign trusts that many will default to the GAA figure’s credibility rather than policy nuance.
Step 5: Normalise Militarism via “Credentials”
To make the narrative credible, the campaign leans heavily into Gavin’s military and peacekeeping past. Gavin served as an officer in the Defence Forces and was deployed on peacekeeping missions.
By foregrounding this in speeches and messaging, the campaign claims legitimacy for his views on military matters, implicitly suggesting he is uniquely qualified to speak on sovereignty, defence, and neutrality. The veneer of authority helps paper over the fact that the substantive shift proposed is radical and clearly not the will of the people.
Step 6: Appeal Specifically to GAA Loyalists
This is the turning point in the transformation: leverage sporting identity to override historical political hostility. Many GAA supporters may never have voted for Fianna Fáil. Some despise it for its culpability in the housing crisis, homelessness, health system collapse, austerity and public services neglect.
“This is not about Fianna Fáil. This is about Ireland’s future, stability, and security. Jim Gavin, your hero, is stepping up for you.” It’s vote-buying, not with cash, but with sentiment and identity. Those who have suffered under Fianna Fáil’s malaise are asked to turn a blind eye and vote with their sporting heart.
Step 7: Deploy Money, Media, and Machine
The imbalance in resources couldn’t be starker. Teams of volunteers and small-scale fundraising are the heart of alternative candidates. These are people already struggling under the weight of a man-made housing crisis, record homelessness, a spiralling cost of living, and a crippled health service – all consequences of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael’s governance.
Meanwhile, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael pour hundreds of thousands into professional contractors, PR firms, and street-sweeping poster blitzes. Jim Gavin’s face is plastered nationwide not because volunteers burned the midnight oil, but because deep pockets paid professionals to do the work. Heather Humphreys, Fine Gael, is on every bus stop poster in the country – advertising space so expensive that major companies are struggling to match it.
This is the battlefield of people’s hope, spirit, and anger up against money, machinery and establishment media saturation. Don’t let money masquerade as momentum; it’s certainly not worth voting for. The puppet has its strings held by deep pockets and party structures, while the folk hero impression remains still unspoiled.
Why This Matters and How It Cuts Deep
This election is about more than candidates; it’s about how Ireland makes decisions that shape its identity. Neutrality has long been central to our role in the world, and the triple lock was designed to ensure no government could deploy troops abroad without democratic consent. Eliminating the triple lock would fundamentally weaken the legal guardrails that have kept Ireland from acting as a satellite of larger militaries. We should never be a pawn in imperialistic war games.
We must consider this election as an opportunity for the people to raise their voice on neutrality and saving the triple lock, for this is the only vote we may have. This election matters because the presidency shouldn’t mask quiet policy shifts but embody the democratic will of the Irish people.
