In 2025, statistics published by the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) revealed that 1 in 31 (3.2%) children are diagnosed with autism before the age of eight in the United States.
For decades, scientists around the world have endeavoured to find the cause of autism as diagnosed cases continue to increase yearly. A singular cause has not yet been discovered, though research emerging as early as the 1970s has overwhelmingly suggested a genetic element: a majority of cases– over 80%– are of inherited genetic mutations, according to the UCLA Medical School. Other causes have historically been put into question, like the “Refrigerator Mother Theory”– a theory which posited that childhood trauma led to autism– and, more recently, The Tylenol Theory.
On Monday, the President of the United States, Donald Trump, announced that American scientists had finally discovered the cause of autism.
Shouldered by RFK, the medically unorthodox US Secretary of Health and Human Services, he proclaimed that acetaminophen, the active ingredient in Tylenol that relieves pain, was found to be directly linked to neurodevelopmental disorders like autism and ADHD. While X users and the President’s supporters backed this theory, scientists were quick to point to the lack of credible research supporting his administration’s imposing claim.
Insufficient Scientific Proof
The initial study that Trump was referencing is based on the findings of numerous studies, including one pioneered by the dean of Harvard’s Chan School of Public Health, Andrea Baccarelli. Baccarelli and fellow Harvard scientists compiled 46 studies measuring the consumption of acetaminophen. 27 of the reviewed studies found that there was a link between the two phenomena. However, many counter studies throughout the years have refuted these findings– notably a study conducted by Karolinska Institute in Sweden and Drexel University, which conducted studies on pairs of twins in Sweden from 1995 to 2019. It found that while children exposed to the drug were marginally more likely to have autism compared to those that weren’t, when twins were introduced into the study, these results disappeared. Findings from sibling studies are considered to be more compelling as the subjects “share genetics and typically grow up in similar environments,” according to Autism Speaks.
While the administration’s recommendation hasn’t been disproven, its counter studies remain significant and must, therefore, be continued to be considered by doctors and patients.
Instead of promoting a well-respected fact among the scientific community, Trump issued a grave warning to pregnant women and parents based on cherry-picked research findings and his own speculation that established a definitive causal link between Tylenol and autism. Furthermore, he acknowledged the trepidation of scientists on endorsing this link but chose to ignore it, relying on personal conviction to hone in his argument. At one point, Trump even proclaimed: “there is a strong recommendation, stronger maybe from me than from the group […] I wanna say it like it is, don’t take Tylenol”. This is a display of authority, not legitimate scientific counsel.
In response to the President’s advice, the FDA published a short article clarifying the relationship: “while an association between acetaminophen and autism has been described in many studies, a causal relationship has not been established and there are contrary studies in the scientific literature”.
Faulty Logic
In his opening remarks, Trump supported the findings by pointing to an American community largely secluded from society and modern technology– the Amish– highlighting the fact that they do not take medicine while also having “no autism.” Similarly, he gave the example of Cuba, which he claimed was “too poor” to afford Tylenol and whose populace similarly boasted low autism rates. However, the fact alone that these populations don’t consume Tylenol at the same rate as others in the U.S does not necessarily indicate that they do not have autistic individuals. Rather, starting on the same premises, Amish and Cuban people may not as readily have access to testing services and, thus, have autism rates that go undiagnosed, potentially creating the illusion that these two variables are directly related.
The same logic refutes his later assertion that there are no old people who have autism– a claim which is not only false but overlooks the dark history of how the country treated neurodiverse individuals in the past. Yes– Tylenol did not exist seventy years ago, but neither did a diagnosis for autism. Worse still is the fact that autistic people were most often mistreated and hidden from society.
Trump’s supporting evidence, or lack thereof, therefore falls into the logical fallacy of correlation vs. causation– the supposed relationship between Tylenol and autism in these populations is an inadequate basis for comparison because he fails to comprehend the full picture: the relationship between autism and Tylenol is much more complex.
Implications
The language that President Trump employed throughout his speech has been criticised by many in the autistic community as offensive, effectively diminishing and stigmatising autistic individuals. He began his speech by lauding America’s “historic steps to confront the crisis of autism– [a] horrible, horrible crisis,” while Secretary for Health and Human Services, Robert F. Kennedy, claimed it “destroyed families.” While Trump laments the shocking statistics of autism, 1 in 32 people in the country who are diagnosed with the condition must now suffer under the charge of his rhetoric.
According to the National Autistic Society, his “claims lead to increased stigma for autistic people who already fight every day for appropriate school places, healthcare, mental health and employment support, and timely diagnosis.” By painting autism as a tragedy and error, as well as a condition with a clear cause, the President makes it more difficult for autistic people to exist comfortably in society and their parents to feel guilty about decisions they took to take Tylenol or give it to their children, despite the ongoing scientific uncertainty of its link to autism.
Trump’s initiatives to broaden the scope of research into autism have the potential to ameliorate the quality of life for autistic individuals and future generations if based on sound, scientific facts. For example, another announcement made alongside the Tylenol Theory–the research into the potential benefits of Leucovorin, a derivative of vitamin B historically used on leukaemia patients, for autistic individuals– may prove to be effective, though research of its validity for treating autism is similarly in its early stages and very limited.
The problem in the administration’s statement is not that it is ramping up initiatives to tackle autism and attempt to find the causes and new ways to alleviate its symptoms– it’s how the President has declared a singular cause without adequate basis for political gain, consequently instilling unsubstantiated fear in families and hurting the autistic community while also setting up a new precedent for the politicisation of science. Trump’s own “common sense” and oversimplification of the research attempts to override the widely held position in the scientific community that there is not yet an established causal link between autism and Tylenol. He is not a doctor, nor has he promoted conclusive data. At this stage, his remarks remain sensationalist and a bid for political support.
Until further research is conducted, the relationship between Tylenol and autism cannot be definitively proven. Yet, one thing is certain– the political and social effects of the hasty pronouncement have already begun ringing through American society and the world at large.
