Over the past year, Reform UK has experienced a huge surge in popularity, establishing itself as a serious competitor in UK politics. Founded in 2018 by Nigel Farage and Catherine Blaiklock as the ‘Brexit Party’, it was renamed ‘Reform UK’ in 2021, rebranding itself as an alternative to the Conservative-Labour establishment. After securing 14.3 per cent of the votes in the 2024 general election, the party has continued to climb rapidly in the polls, capitalising on widespread discontent with the politics of the two dominant parties. Populist and right-wing, this party is known for its hardline immigration stance, euroscepticism, and its fight against what it calls “woke ideology”.
But what would a potential Reform UK government mean for Ireland? Although Farage has stated that he would consider a Reform UK government a good thing for UK-Ireland relations, there are aspects of his policy proposals which cast doubt on this assertion.
Farage’s intention to leave the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) would have a significant effect on Ireland. While there has been rhetoric for years, largely led by the Conservative party, criticising the ECHR’s impact on British sovereignty, Farage has recently reignited the debate as part of his anti-immigration policy. The logic behind this, as far as it is clear, is that Farage wants to prevent deportees from being able to appeal their cases at the British courts, or even in Strasbourg, under Article 3 or Article 8 of the ECHR. However infrequent, the use of these articles to challenge deportation orders would threaten Reform’s zero-tolerance immigration policy.
Leaving the ECHR would have a significant impact on Northern Ireland and the island of Ireland as a whole. The ECHR is a central part of both the Brexit withdrawal agreement with the EU and the Good Friday Agreement. Leaving this convention would thus undermine both of these agreements. The ECHR was included in the Good Friday Agreement to demonstrate to those in Northern Ireland mistrustful of the British state, largely the Catholic and nationalist populations, that their rights were protected by an external supranational convention. The removal of the ECHR would constitute the removal of these constraints upon the British state. Therefore, leaving the ECHR could serve to reignite historical tensions, and would undoubtedly cause a shift within the Northern Irish political sphere.
Farage has addressed the fact that his policies would result in a need to renegotiate the Good Friday Agreement. However, he has simultaneously dismissed the complexities of the situation, arguing that the Agreement was not dependent on the inclusion of “the ECHR thing”. When it comes to actually proposing how he intends to deal with the consequences of leaving the ECHR, he has said that Northern Ireland will “not be at the forefront” of his plans. It seems that Farage does not actually have a concrete plan regarding Northern Ireland, and will put it on the back burner as a result. This is not the first time Farage has demonstrated a lack of sensitivity regarding Northern Ireland – in 2021 he came under fire for using the Republican-associated phrase “Up the Ra” in a Cameo video. He claimed he did not understand its significance and would never knowingly use a phrase supporting the IRA. Regardless of intention, Farage’s use of the phrase, as a nationalist English politician, demonstrates a lack of understanding of the complex situation in Northern Ireland.
The response from Irish politicians is largely critical of Farage’s attitude. Former SDLP leader Colum Eastwood said that Farage’s attitude towards leaving the ECHR made it clear that he had “no answers for tough questions on what that would mean for the legal framework of the Good Friday Agreement”. Eastwood added that rhetoric like this will only push Northern Irish people away from the “narrow vision” of Britain’s future espoused by Farage and his party. This sentiment has been echoed by others who have pointed out that a potential Reform UK government could actually bring Ireland closer to unification. In June of this year, former Taoiseach Leo Varadkar argued that a Reform UK government would increase support for Irish unification by pushing those in the middle ground away from Britain. This, Varadkar argued, would be due not just to the party’s nationalism, but also due to its other conservative policies that Northern Irish people would not identify with.
While Farage’s intention to leave the ECHR would be Reform’s most contentious policy point when it comes to UK-Ireland relations, it is not the only problematic aspect of his party’s rising success. It is also important to consider the impact that Reform’s Euroscepticism will have on Irish politics. The UK and Ireland’s shared EU membership provided an external framework under which decision making could be guided. Since Brexit, policy making between the two countries has grown more complicated. One area in which this is particularly contentious is the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic. The Brexit withdrawal agreement included firstly the Protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland, and later the Windsor Framework, both of which attempted to regulate practicalities that would prevent a hard border. This involved the retention of the common travel area, along with the application of certain EU trade laws in Northern Ireland. However, Farage’s Eurosceptic and anti-immigration rhetoric, along with his casual attitude towards the complexities within Northern Ireland, makes it unclear as to whether he will respect these agreements. It is likely that he will bring into question the existence of certain EU trade policies in Northern Ireland, along with the fact that a soft border could be a barrier to his hardline anti-immigration stance.
Furthermore, it is already clear that without having even been elected, Reform’s rhetoric is being echoed among sections of the UK population, with large anti-immigration protests taking place across the country. This begs the question as to what the effect of a potential Reform UK government would have on the right-wing, anti-immigration sections of the Irish population. Similar anti-immigration riots have taken place in Dublin, in November 2023 as well as October 2025. Will a right-wing, Eurosceptic, anti-immigration party elected in the UK, our closest neighbour, embolden and legitimise the same cohort in Ireland? While an elected Reform government is a potentiality as of this moment, it is paramount that its current normative effect, both at home and abroad, is taken seriously.
Without a doubt, a Reform UK government would mark a pivotal moment in British politics, but its implications would extend far beyond Westminster. From its rhetoric to its policies, it is clear that the election of Farage’s party would pose risks to the current political stability between the UK and Ireland. Should Reform UK translate its growing popularity into concrete political power, the impact upon UK-Ireland relations would be significant.
