Ireland has never been a stranger to navigating the strenuous world of international relations. Perhaps the greatest diplomatic challenge faced by an Irish government was the “Emergency” during the Second World War, in-which the Free State led by Éamonn de Valera embarked on the challenge of maintaining a neutral status during one of the most brutal wars the European continent (and, of course, the world) ever faced. This was not made any easier by the island’s proximity to its former British coloniser, who had granted sovereignty less than twenty years beforehand, and the intense pressure Prime Minister Winston Churchill exerted on de Valera to join the war on the side of the Allies. However, through strategic dealings on the part of the government (including providing local weather reports to the Brits as well as the establishment of the “Donegal Corridor” for Allied aircraft to fly through), the State was able to successfully maintain its quasi-neutrality.
It is this kind of experience the Taoiseach will likely be hoping to draw upon when the world’s most powerful figure comes to Ireland next week to attend the Irish Open. Air Force One is expected to hit the tarmac at Dublin Airport on September 12th. Afterwards, President Trump will be greeted by Taoiseach Micheál Martin in the stately Farmleigh House before visiting the site of the new planned American embassy in Ballsbridge. He will then travel to Doonbeg in Clare in order to visit the Open, which will be hosted at his own branded golf course, where he will present the trophy to the winner of the competition. As it is not a formal State visit, there are no plans for President Trump to visit the Oireachtas, and it is unclear whether he will meet his Head of State counterpart, President Catherine Connolly (although she has publicly stated she will consider any request to meet him). The Government may be keen to avoid this latter appointment, given President Connolly’s recent criticism of the war in Iran in her St Patrick’s Day address as well as past comments she has made denouncing the administration’s foreign policy. What is inevitable, however, are the mass-scale protests being planned against the American President’s visit over the recent war in Iran and Gaza, with the likes of People Before Profit and the Irish Neutrality League at the forefront.
Since Trump first took a seat in the Oval Office in 2016, the Irish Government’s central strategy has been maintaining peace. This could be seen with the bilateral meetings held over the term between former Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and Trump’s now-discarded former Vice President Mike Pence. Despite Pence’s opposition to LGBTQ+ rights (an issue particularly pertinent to the Republic’s first gay Taoiseach), it never became an issue that rocked the relationship between both governments, even when Varadkar brought up the issue behind closed doors. Earlier this year, Martin faced the somewhat challenging task of visiting the White House on St Patrick’s Day. The visit followed Trump’s economic war, which has consisted of the imposition of extensive tariffs over the past year. And whilst the Taoiseach did push back on the President’s claims over EU immigration and critiques of recently resigned UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer (although there was controversially little retort over Trump’s misgendering of President Connolly), the meeting was overall extremely amicable, with POTUS thanking the Taoiseach for cementing the “tremendous bonds” between both countries. The status quo policy of the Irish Government with regard to the American President, therefore, seems to be one of restraint and reservation with proportional pushback strategically and sparingly utilised when they feel the moment calls for it. The Government does not wish to pull the tiger’s tail, but only give it a slight poke when it feels safe to do so.
It will therefore be crucial to the Taoiseach and the rest of the Irish Government that the President’s visit next week does not result in any moments that could ignite the world leader’s volatile disposition. This will particularly be the case given the passage of the Occupied Territories Bill a month ago, which drew extensive scrutiny from American political leaders as well as the US embassy itself. And whilst the activities of the administration internationally have been less than savoury, the Irish Government will likely be adopting an economic lens. 245,000 Irish people are currently employed by American multinationals based in Ireland, according to a report by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce earlier this year, and the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council noted in February that just three multinationals (believed to be American corporations Apple, Microsoft, and Eli Lilly) make up nearly half of corporate tax receipts. With an American President who has made it increasingly and abundantly clear that he will dismantle longstanding economic ties at the snap of his fingers, the Irish Government are unlikely to create any situation which may persuade him to do so.
When the Irish Free State declared neutrality in the Second World War, it was just as much a statement of sovereignty as it was one of self-preservation. De Valera wished to convey to the rest of the world that Éire was its own nation governed by its own people, free from the influence of any foreign entity. However, the circumstances around such a situation eighty years ago have greatly changed, arguably allowing the Irish Government in the present-day much less wiggle room to make such symbolic representations. The Taoiseach will likely feel obliged to shrug off ill-feelings regarding Gaza, Iran, or any of the other foreign policy activities the Trump administration has undertaken which have called into repute international law and indeed the international order.
Realpolitik will mean placating a man who arguably dictates a sizeable chunk of the Exchequer and quite literally hundreds of thousands of Irish livelihoods. It may therefore be in the Government’s interest to steer the President away from Leinster House as well as Áras an Uachtarán, and to ensure as hasty and as expedient a trip as possible. Because at the end of the day, in the view of the Government anyway, it’s the economy, stupid.
