If Washington sneezes, the global markets catch a cold. Ireland, with its unique exposure to the US, risks pneumonia.
US midterm election discussion is often framed through the lens of domestic decisions on congressional power, but the shock waves echo beyond American borders. Ireland, whose industry and tax system somewhat moulds around the US pharmaceutical and corporate interests who call our island a base, may risk moulding, dependent on shifting legislative majorities in Washington. How will the resulting balance of power shape US trade protectionism, international corporate tax policy and the employment market for Irish graduates at home and across the pond?
A splatter of blue in Congress was predicted by some, but the ‘tsunami’ surprised many. Key seats changed hands: Texas’ James Talarico beat Republican Ken Paxton, the first Democratic Senate win in Texas since 1988. South Carolina’s Annie Andrews beat Republican Darline Graham. Kansas’ Adam Hamilton won the state’s first Democratic Senate race since 1932. Amy Acton became the first woman elected governor in Ohio, beating out prominent Trump ally Vivek Ramaswamy. Michigan’s Abdul El-Sayed beat Mike Rogers in a highly-publicised race, becoming the first Muslim senator. He defeated over $60 million in primary spending against him, mostly from pro-Israel groups including AIPAC — a record amount of money injected into a primary.
There were additional historic firsts to emerge from the elections: Deb Haaland of New Mexico became the first Native American woman elected governor. Peggy Flanagan, similarly, the first Native American woman in the US Senate. Keisha Lance Bottoms made Georgia history as the first Black woman elected governor in US history. Aber Kawas won a seat in the New York State Senate, becoming the first Palestinian-American in the state legislature. Chris Pappas of New Hampshire became the first openly gay man in the US Senate and Allison Montgomery succeeded in unseating a Republican 53-47 in Alabama House District 25, making history as the state’s first transgender legislator.
The tidal wave of Democratic seat changeovers and maintenance of blue strongholds has been met with surprise; Brooke Masters, Financial Times US Managing Editor, described the conservative state seat flips as “absolutely insane”.
Why has this overhaul of Republican power in Congress been so wide-reaching? “I think the election can only be read as a repudiation of what he’s done in his past two years in office”, said Trinity’s Daniel Geary, Mark Pigott Professor of U.S. History. High prices of groceries and fuel were cited in NBC’s exit polls as concerning voters. 62 per cent blamed Trump for high prices and 65 per cent believe his policies made the economy worse. Broken promises surrounding both commodities’ prices and Trump’s campaign issue of “stopping wars” likely shifted red states blue. Candidates who centred their campaigns around the cost of living crisis, like Acton in Ohio and Talarico in Texas saw success this election cycle.
Trump, for his part, blamed the vast swathe of losses on not being on the ballot, standing by his waging of war in Iran as a “wise decision”. “I don’t like to consider it a defeat for me. I wasn’t on the ballot”, Trump told Fox News on Tuesday. Despite his vehemence, it’s worth noting that Trump urged voters more than 41 times in recent weeks to “pretend I’m on the ballot”, according to the Washington Post. It seems as though they did just that.
Prior to the midterms, Trump was suffering historic, Harry S. Truman lows, in public opinion and heightened opposition to his policies and behaviours. This sentiment is “a complete and total repudiation of one man and his policies”, said GOP strategist Barrett Marson. “Clearly, Trump failed to meet the economic expectations and also fueled the anger in doing so”, said Republican strategist Paul Shumaker.
What does this ushering in of Democrats to Congress mean for Ireland? As EU leaders meet in Dublin this week under Ireland’s EU presidency, this analysis is front-of-mind. €58 billion in pharma and chemical exports to the US each year from Ireland leaves the country uniquely exposed to the whims of the White House. Pharma tariffs remain a risk to Ireland’s corporation tax income, according to the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council. Three-quarters of corporation tax income derives from US multinationals, 87 per cent of which comes from tech and pharma companies. EY Ireland warns that power over tariffs remains in the White House, so the US companies who employed around 178,000 people in Ireland as of 2023, ought not expect any major change soon.
The long-trodden path of Ireland to America for fresh graduates is becoming a slower, less populated journey throughout this Trump term. This is no coincidence. All J-1 visas, including graduate visas, require applicants to set all social media profiles to public for an “online presence” review, as of June 18, 2025. Interview waivers have ended for almost all visa types and a $250 “visa integrity fee” on each visa issued, inclusive of J-1 and H-1B have been introduced under Trump. RTÉ reports enforcement against Irish people already in the US has risen and citizens seeking consular assistance regarding deportation rocketed from 15 in 2024 to 65 in 2025, a 330 per cent rise, with some Irish people detained despite possessing valid work permits. The tightening of immigration restrictions under Trump and Republican Congressional power leaves little optimism for improved Irish graduate mobility to the US as most restrictions, besides the visa integrity fee, are executive actions. ICE is already funded under the Republican One Big Beautiful Bill and any attempt to reduce the size of their purse would almost certainly be vetoed by Trump.
Democrats can operate on the defence until the Presidential election. They have the capacity to investigate using subpoena power, block new funding towards immigration crackdown or the fuel-crisis-causing Iran war. But change is unfortunately unlikely to be able to come from Congress. It is far more likely to emerge from the courts, which have blocked the $100,000 H-1B fee, most recently this September.
Can we afford to be hopeful now? Around 40 million more people voted in the midterm elections than the last cycle, indicative of the rising frustration with Trumpian politics, office antics and the unaffordability crisis. The increase in voter participation and the Congressional reconfiguration suggest the chance for change. Blocking new funding for the war in Iran, in particular, could ease the energy-price pressure in Ireland, the US and farther afield. But a blue Congress can’t yet fully dampen the Trumpian flame.
