The second seal has opened, and the red horse of War has ridden forth. Starting on October 6th, there has been an escalating series of airstrikes between the Houthis in Sana’a and Saudi Arabia, with the Houthis notably striking Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport, killing 12 and injuring over 300, according to the BBC. These attacks cannot be viewed in isolation; rather, they are a symptom of an escalating crisis across the Middle East and North Africa that threatens global oil markets in an already unstable environment. The spreading of conflict since 2023 in the region has let the proverbial djinn of disaster out of the bottle, and the region is at risk of escalation the likes of which the world has not seen since the fields of Flanders in 1914.
On their own, the Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure do not seem out of place in a region scarred by terrorism. Many would stop at the headline. However, the recent signing of the Mecca Pact between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey highlights a frightening possibility: that of a region embroiled in a multi-layered conflict on several fronts. America shows signs of escalating its operations in Iran across air and sea; Israel appears ready to broaden its actions from Gaza to the West Bank following their recent election, and Ethiopia’s incursion into Tigray has the potential to turn into a ground war with Eritrea. The interconnected nature of these conflicts suggests that, without a substantial effort to curtail them, the region’s already precarious web of alliances and relationships could disintegrate into an all-out war. In a destabilized Middle East and North Africa, regional power rests with Saudi Arabia and Iran, both of which support proxies in an attempt to outflank the other. The use of proxies in the region can often lead to retaliation against the supporting nation, such as when Israel and the US conducted strikes against Iran in 2025 following Houthi attacks in the Red Sea during the 12 Days War in an attempt to force safer trade lines through the region. However, the recent strikes against Saudi Arabia raise the risk of these two regional powers coming to blows with each other, bringing their allies along with them. The Mecca Pact between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey is a formal defensive alliance, but the larger threat comes from the middle powers in the region, particularly the Gulf States. If these conflicts spread to the Gulf States, they are likely to have an outsized effect on an already stunted system of global petroleum exports to the wider world.
If the US expands its operations in Iran, as it seems poised to do, there is the potential for a cascade effect across the region, particularly in Lebanon, Palestine, and Yemen. By mobilizing its proxy forces, particularly Hezbollah and the Houthis, Iran can push more of the region onto a war footing by escalating ongoing conflicts. Further American actions are likely to lead to increased Houthi strikes in the Red Sea and drone attacks on American bases in Kuwait. Furthermore, as seen throughout the past several years, additional attacks on Iran can lead to retaliatory strikes by Hezbollah on Israel. By expanding the conflict in this way, there is a risk of it spiraling out of control and destabilizing already shaky oil and shipping lines through the region, potentially drawing Ethiopia and Eritrea into the fray. While these nations are currently at peace, recent Ethiopian actions in the breakaway region of Tigray have strained already tense relations between the two nations, particularly over Ethiopia’s goal of having port access in the Red Sea. These nations are complex players in the region, often playing Saudi Arabia and Iran off each other to their benefit. Ethiopia enjoys strong bilateral relations with Israel, while Eritrea has become increasingly aligned with Iran’s Axis of Resistance, following the events of 2023. American plans to expand operations in the Strait of Hormuz following the midterm elections next week and Tehran’s promise of firm retaliation, through its proxies or otherwise, highlight an increasing risk of this conflict escalating across the region as middle powers like Ethiopia and Eritrea seek to exploit their connections to major players for their own interests. Finally, Israel’s planned offensive actions into the West Bank are likely to result in a prolonged, multilayered guerrilla confrontation spread between the West Bank, Gaza, and Southern Lebanon as Iranian proxies respond to an overstretched Israel, potentially triggering a larger American response in the region, causing further chaos.
This is not to say prevention is impossible; diplomacy remains on the table to prevent a region-wide conflict with global implications. Middle powers worldwide, and Ireland in particular, appear to be viewing these incidents on a larger field than their stronger neighbors, acutely aware of the damage escalation would cause. In a statement on October 11th, Minister for Foreign Affairs, Helen McEntee, highlighted the importance of the UN Special Envoy to the region, as well as how the increasingly fragile situation across the Gulf was being addressed in a meeting of EU foreign ministers, stating, “It is in all our interests that there is a return to meaningful, good-faith negotiations.” Furthermore, her concern does not appear to be fully based on the spread of conflicts across the region, but on how it would affect global trade, arguing for an immediate cessation of hostilities between the US and Iran to preserve oil trade routes through the Strait of Hormuz. This statement’s emphasis on diplomacy as the guiding light of Ireland’s response to this crisis is a blueprint to follow for the rest of the world; unfortunately, it seems to have never made it off the drawing board.
This risk of this conflict spreading cannot be understated or ignored. As the winter months begin, countries that depend on oil from this region for fuel are likely to see skyrocketing oil and gas prices, alongside delays in global supply lines for goods that would typically travel through the Red Sea or Strait of Hormuz. While escalation may serve to further a nation’s goal when viewed as isolated incidents, the interconnected nature of the region, particularly the role proxies play on its political chessboard, means that an action in one region, such as American attacks in Iran, is likely to show a response somewhere else in the region, such as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure. The recent Houthi attacks on King Khalid Airport in Riyadh show that the region is at a critical security tipping point, with American actions in Iran, Israeli plans in the West Bank, and heightened tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea highlighting a concerning possibility of individual actions leading to a regional war with dangerous implications for global fuel markets.
