A recent climate report was published by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in Nairobi on September 3rd, 2026. The report, entitled Limiting Overshoot, warns that global temperatures are likely to exceed the 1.5 degree Celsius limit agreed under the Paris Agreement in 2015. Even under an optimistic scenario based on current government commitments, warming could peak at around 1.8 degrees.
Although this report may seem alarming at first glance, we are also told that it is possible to reverse the situation by adopting an “Overshoot, peak and decline” plan to return to 1.5 degrees Celsius, or even lower if possible, although this is less likely.
The Executive Director of UNEP, Inger Andersen, even stated that “there will be no positive outcomes if we remain above 1.5 degrees Celsius.” Indeed, the report makes it clear that the consequences of exceeding this temperature threshold would include intensified extreme weather, ecosystem loss and the submersion of Small Island Developing States and low-lying coastal cities, whilst also affecting food security and human health.
It could also increase the risk of irreversible changes, or “tipping points”, involving systems such as the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The report therefore states that we must undertake both mitigation and adaptation measures, and even utilise carbon dioxide removal to bring the temperature back down to 1.5 degrees, for example, by capturing CO2 from the air or restoring ecosystems.
Finally, the report emphasises the importance of climate equity. Countries have different levels of historical responsibility, resources, and vulnerability, meaning that climate action must take these differences into account. The report also stresses the need for greater international cooperation, climate finance, technology transfer and long-term governance, as managing climate overshoot and its consequences could take decades or even longer.
